Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Gelof, Zack
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team ATH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
43
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.281 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.289 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.285 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.249
0.266
0.285
0.304
0.321
wOBA
0.336
0.354
0.374
0.395
0.413
ISO
0.152
0.170
0.190
0.210
0.227
K%
24.2%
25.9%
27.7%
29.5%
31.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
38
-22 vs proj
Exit velocity87.6
43
Hard-hit%41.3%
61
xBA0.310
35
xSLG0.517
53
xwOBA0.289
31
BB%6.2%
21
-18 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
80
K%24.7%
38
+31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 3B
11
Arm Strength91.0 · 3B
80
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 3B
18
Range Runs0.0 · 3B
48
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.1 · 3B
88
Bolts6.0 · 3B
58
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
93
Sprint Speed28.8 · 3B
88
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.1% · rebadged research
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.8% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
68
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
29
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.375 · insufficient sample
3
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
117 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.077 |
| Sample | 259 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 311 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.298 | 0.229 to 0.360 | +/- 0.066 |
| ISO | 0.176 | 0.104 to 0.249 | +/- 0.073 |
| Barrel% | 5.7% | 2.9% to 8.9% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.3% | 32.7% to 50.2% | +/- 8.7% |
| K% | 33.0% | 25.5% to 38.3% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 4.3% to 11.3% | +/- 3.5% |
| BABIP | 0.305 | 0.229 to 0.371 | +/- 0.071 |
vs LHP
239 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.200 |
| K% | 25.6% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
752 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.214 |
| K% | 24.4% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |