Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Gelof, Zack
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team ATH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.281 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.287 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
xwOBA
0.244
0.264
0.287
0.309
0.329
wOBA
0.291
0.313
0.339
0.364
0.386
ISO
0.127
0.149
0.172
0.196
0.217
K%
24.2%
26.1%
28.3%
30.4%
32.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.2%
22
-15 vs proj
Barrel%5.0%
48
Bat speed72.0
80
Exit velocity88.4
50
Hard-hit%41.8%
59
K%24.2%
37
+33 vs proj
xBA0.316
42
xSLG0.540
60
xwOBA0.294
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 3B
12
Arm Strength91.0 · 3B
83
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs-0.0 · 3B
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · 3B
90
Bolts3.0 · 3B
43
Sprint Speed28.8 · 3B
89
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research
24
Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · insufficient sample
89
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
23
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.374 · insufficient sample
2
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
71
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
103 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.041 |
| Sample | 161 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 311 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.298 | 0.229 to 0.360 | +/- 0.066 |
| ISO | 0.176 | 0.104 to 0.249 | +/- 0.073 |
| Barrel% | 5.7% | 2.9% to 8.9% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.3% | 32.7% to 50.2% | +/- 8.7% |
| K% | 33.0% | 25.5% to 38.3% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 4.3% to 11.3% | +/- 3.5% |
| BABIP | 0.305 | 0.229 to 0.371 | +/- 0.071 |
vs LHP
239 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.200 |
| K% | 25.6% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
752 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.214 |
| K% | 24.4% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |