Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Davis, Henry
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team PIT
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.300 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.288 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.252
0.273
0.295
0.318
0.338
wOBA
0.247
0.270
0.296
0.321
0.344
ISO
0.101
0.125
0.150
0.176
0.199
K%
19.7%
21.5%
23.4%
25.3%
27.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.0%
51
Barrel%6.9%
73
+26 vs proj
Bat speed71.7
77
Exit velocity88.7
53
Hard-hit%37.4%
39
K%19.3%
66
+37 vs proj
xBA0.262
8
xSLG0.437
27
xwOBA0.288
30
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.5 · C
5
Catcher Throwing1.1 · C
78
Framing Runs0.3 · C
52
Pop Time1.9 · C
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · C
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.0% · rebadged research
52
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
70
Correct Decisions70.2% · rebadged research
85
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
76
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
67
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.250 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.301 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated
31
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
97 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| Sample | 145 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 362 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.238 to 0.366 | +/- 0.064 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.067 to 0.222 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 2.8% to 8.5% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.0% | 30.9% to 48.6% | +/- 8.9% |
| K% | 26.6% | 24.0% to 34.8% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 7.9% | 4.7% to 11.4% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.275 | 0.204 to 0.326 | +/- 0.061 |
vs LHP
183 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.200 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
509 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.193 |
| K% | 19.8% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |