Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
Kwan, Steven
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CLE
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
23
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.328 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.326 |
| Observed weight | 75% |
xwOBA
0.307
0.316
0.326
0.336
0.346
wOBA
0.335
0.346
0.359
0.371
0.383
ISO
0.069
0.078
0.087
0.097
0.106
K%
8.4%
9.2%
10.0%
10.8%
11.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.3%
2
Exit velocity82.3
5
Hard-hit%10.6%
0
xBA0.314
45
xSLG0.388
10
xwOBA0.328
76
BB%13.9%
96
+49 vs proj
Bat speed60.1
0
K%10.0%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · CF
66
Arm Strength92.4 · CF
40
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
88
Range Runs6.5 · CF
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · CF
50
Bolts1.0 · CF
11
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
19
Sprint Speed27.4 · CF
48
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.6% · rebadged research
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.6% · rebadged research
11
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
64
Resists FastballwOBA 0.350 · validated
27
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
60
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample
7
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.248 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
47
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.381 · validated
11
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.035 |
| Sample | 657 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 628 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.323 | 0.296 to 0.363 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.117 | 0.080 to 0.207 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 1.6% | 0.7% to 3.8% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 21.9% | 18.6% to 29.5% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 8.6% | 7.0% to 15.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.9% to 11.4% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.264 to 0.343 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
832 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 9.1% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 1.1% |
vs RHP
1989 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 7.9% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |