Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Del Castillo, Adrian
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team AZ
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
32
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.277 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.256 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.267 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.222
0.243
0.267
0.291
0.313
wOBA
0.222
0.241
0.263
0.284
0.303
ISO
0.088
0.109
0.132
0.154
0.175
K%
25.2%
27.2%
29.5%
31.8%
33.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
38
-18 vs proj
Exit velocity86.9
39
Hard-hit%36.5%
41
-26 vs proj
xBA0.287
19
xSLG0.477
43
xwOBA0.256
12
-35 vs proj
BB%6.7%
30
Bat speed69.9
53
K%28.2%
23
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.6 · C
73
Catcher Throwing-0.9 · C
32
Framing Runs0.2 · C
56
Pop Time2.0 · C
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.3 · DH
22
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9% · rebadged research
48
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions66.0% · rebadged research
48
Mithrandir Stuff+77
4
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · borderline
96
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
81
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
96 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.043 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.037 |
| Sample | 195 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 275 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.195 to 0.352 | +/- 0.079 |
| ISO | 0.182 | 0.070 to 0.225 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% | 5.2% | 1.6% to 7.3% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.8% | 27.1% to 48.5% | +/- 10.7% |
| K% | 31.4% | 20.9% to 35.6% | +/- 7.4% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 3.1% to 10.6% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.303 | 0.209 to 0.385 | +/- 0.088 |
vs LHP
27 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.115 |
| K% | 15.1% |
| BB% | 2.8% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
195 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.128 |
| K% | 15.2% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |