Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Foscue, Justin
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team TEX
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
78
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.210 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.368 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.253 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
xwOBA
0.172
0.210
0.253
0.295
0.334
wOBA
0.267
0.298
0.333
0.368
0.400
ISO
0.046
0.080
0.119
0.157
0.192
K%
21.5%
26.5%
32.1%
37.7%
42.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
63
+36 vs proj
Exit velocity89.9
69
Hard-hit%42.3%
62
+52 vs proj
xBA0.391
95
xSLG0.701
92
xwOBA0.368
89
+85 vs proj
BB%6.1%
20
Bat speed69.1
43
K%26.8%
25
+21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength78.7 · 2B
7
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
42
Range Runs1.5 · 2B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · 2B
49
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7% · rebadged research
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9% · rebadged research
19
Correct Decisions63.6% · rebadged research
26
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
68
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
13
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
82
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
38
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
46 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.127 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.092 |
| Sample | 82 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 213 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.241 | 0.095 to 0.310 | +/- 0.108 |
| ISO | 0.131 | 0.026 to 0.222 | +/- 0.098 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.2% to 5.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 28.1% | 10.1% to 39.5% | +/- 14.7% |
| K% | 34.1% | 15.9% to 44.8% | +/- 14.4% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 0.9% to 10.0% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.261 | 0.122 to 0.333 | +/- 0.105 |
vs LHP
35 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.032 |
| K% | 7.4% |
| BB% | 1.0% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
59 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.030 |
| K% | 7.8% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.2% |