Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Torkelson, Spencer
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team DET
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
77
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.326 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.319 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.299
0.310
0.322
0.334
0.345
wOBA
0.304
0.319
0.335
0.351
0.366
ISO
0.184
0.197
0.212
0.226
0.239
K%
26.4%
27.6%
29.0%
30.4%
31.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
89
Exit velocity89.7
69
Hard-hit%44.3%
73
xBA0.349
77
xSLG0.663
89
xwOBA0.319
64
BB%10.4%
72
Bat speed71.4
74
K%31.3%
11
-29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-10.0 · 1B
1
Range Runs-7.2 · 1B
2
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · 1B
19
Sprint Speed26.5 · 1B
27
SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.5% · rebadged research
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2% · rebadged research
69
Correct Decisions72.5% · rebadged research
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · borderline
13
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.250 · insufficient sample
98
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
85
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369 · validated
10
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393 · validated
5
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
158 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| Sample | 393 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 597 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 23 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.331 | 0.303 to 0.373 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.211 | 0.158 to 0.278 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 8.0% | 5.0% to 9.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.1% | 41.2% to 53.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 24.2% | 20.3% to 30.5% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 10.4% | 7.6% to 12.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.249 to 0.332 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
588 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 18.5% |
| BB% | 10.4% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |
vs RHP
1718 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 23.3% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |