Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Barrosa, Jorge
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
10
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.280 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.216 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.254 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.207
0.229
0.254
0.278
0.301
wOBA
0.330
0.354
0.381
0.408
0.432
ISO
0.104
0.130
0.160
0.190
0.216
K%
17.3%
20.2%
23.4%
26.5%
29.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
44
+22 vs proj
Exit velocity80.0
2
Hard-hit%25.0%
7
-20 vs proj
xBA0.223
1
xSLG0.353
4
xwOBA0.216
3
-24 vs proj
BB%8.7%
51
+36 vs proj
Bat speed64.4
5
K%26.0%
31
-16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · CF
29
Arm Strength91.0 · CF
30
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
46
Range Runs4.1 · CF
86
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · CF
15
Sprint Speed28.5 · CF
81
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.8% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.3% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions64.5% · rebadged research
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
34
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
44
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
56
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.350 · insufficient sample
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.290 · validated
99
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated
27
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
83 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.070 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.095 |
| Sample | 150 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 240 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.284 | 0.164 to 0.311 | +/- 0.073 |
| ISO | 0.127 | 0.041 to 0.222 | +/- 0.090 |
| Barrel% | 3.1% | 0.2% to 4.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.9% | 19.6% to 39.2% | +/- 9.8% |
| K% | 22.7% | 13.0% to 32.2% | +/- 9.6% |
| BB% | 5.3% | 0.8% to 8.5% | +/- 3.9% |
| BABIP | 0.272 | 0.181 to 0.341 | +/- 0.080 |
vs LHP
59 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.062 |
| K% | 6.9% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
50 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.062 |
| K% | 7.4% |
| BB% | 0.6% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |