Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Barrosa, Jorge
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
9
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.273 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.238 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.257 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.213
0.234
0.257
0.279
0.300
wOBA
0.335
0.356
0.380
0.404
0.425
ISO
0.102
0.126
0.153
0.180
0.204
K%
17.9%
20.5%
23.4%
26.3%
28.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
31
Exit velocity78.5
1
Hard-hit%25.6%
8
-22 vs proj
xBA0.245
4
xSLG0.373
7
xwOBA0.238
6
-22 vs proj
BB%9.9%
68
+52 vs proj
Bat speed63.2
3
K%25.5%
35
-16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.0 · CF
13
Arm Strength91.0 · CF
26
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs5.6 · CF
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts3.0 · CF
32
Sprint Speed28.4 · CF
78
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.6% · rebadged research
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.2% · rebadged research
23
Correct Decisions64.1% · rebadged research
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
45
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
48
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.287 · validated
99
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
95 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.045 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.097 |
| Sample | 192 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 240 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.283 | 0.164 to 0.310 | +/- 0.073 |
| ISO | 0.127 | 0.043 to 0.222 | +/- 0.089 |
| Barrel% | 3.1% | 0.2% to 4.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.9% | 19.6% to 39.2% | +/- 9.8% |
| K% | 22.7% | 13.0% to 32.2% | +/- 9.6% |
| BB% | 5.3% | 0.8% to 8.5% | +/- 3.9% |
| BABIP | 0.269 | 0.179 to 0.336 | +/- 0.079 |
vs LHP
59 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.062 |
| K% | 6.9% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
50 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.062 |
| K% | 7.4% |
| BB% | 0.6% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |