Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Barrosa, Jorge
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.273 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.222 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.255 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.205
0.229
0.255
0.282
0.306
wOBA
0.343
0.371
0.401
0.432
0.459
ISO
0.100
0.129
0.162
0.194
0.223
K%
17.3%
20.4%
23.9%
27.3%
30.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.4%
59
+45 vs proj
Barrel%5.1%
51
+27 vs proj
Bat speed65.3
8
Exit velocity79.7
2
Hard-hit%23.9%
6
-20 vs proj
K%28.2%
20
-25 vs proj
xBA0.241
4
xSLG0.374
10
xwOBA0.222
3
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · CF
45
Arm Strength91.0 · CF
34
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Range Runs2.0 · CF
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
88
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.9% · rebadged research
52
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.5% · rebadged research
20
Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
36
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
57
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.296 · validated
98
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
71 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.062 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.117 |
| Sample | 117 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 240 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.284 | 0.164 to 0.311 | +/- 0.073 |
| ISO | 0.127 | 0.041 to 0.222 | +/- 0.090 |
| Barrel% | 3.1% | 0.2% to 4.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.9% | 19.6% to 39.2% | +/- 9.8% |
| K% | 22.7% | 13.0% to 32.2% | +/- 9.6% |
| BB% | 5.3% | 0.8% to 8.5% | +/- 3.9% |
| BABIP | 0.272 | 0.181 to 0.340 | +/- 0.080 |
vs LHP
59 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.062 |
| K% | 6.9% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
50 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.062 |
| K% | 7.4% |
| BB% | 0.6% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |