Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.242 vs 0.212 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Thomas, Alek
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team LAD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.292 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.303 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.287
0.303
0.319
0.333
wOBA
0.282
0.309
0.338
0.368
0.394
ISO
0.130
0.149
0.171
0.192
0.211
K%
19.4%
20.9%
22.7%
24.4%
26.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.4%
5
Barrel%6.8%
72
+19 vs proj
Bat speed66.5
17
Exit velocity88.7
53
Hard-hit%44.4%
69
+17 vs proj
K%22.9%
44
xBA0.314
39
xSLG0.530
56
xwOBA0.292
34
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · CF
56
Arm Strength86.9 · CF
12
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
90
Range Runs1.5 · CF
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · CF
66
Sprint Speed27.8 · CF
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 51.9% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions59.7% · rebadged research
8
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
46
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.246 · insufficient sample
99
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample
13
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
78
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
80
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
83 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 118 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 459 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.302 | 0.274 to 0.347 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.100 to 0.214 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 5.3% | 3.2% to 7.5% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.7% | 37.4% to 49.1% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 22.1% | 19.6% to 28.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 5.6% | 4.2% to 8.8% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.279 | 0.245 to 0.331 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
325 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.212 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |
vs RHP
1213 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |