Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Alexander, Blaze
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
80
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.275 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.360 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.321 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.289
0.304
0.321
0.338
0.353
wOBA
0.344
0.363
0.383
0.403
0.422
ISO
0.097
0.113
0.131
0.148
0.164
K%
21.2%
22.7%
24.4%
26.0%
27.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
44
Exit velocity90.4
79
Hard-hit%48.6%
87
+35 vs proj
xBA0.409
98
xSLG0.617
80
xwOBA0.360
89
+56 vs proj
BB%6.2%
21
-19 vs proj
Bat speed70.0
54
K%22.1%
51
+27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · 3B
7
Arm Strength95.6 · 3B
96
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 3B
18
Range Runs-4.7 · 3B
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.0 · 3B
88
Bolts3.0 · 3B
42
SB Success Rate80.0% · 3B
45
Sprint Speed28.3 · 3B
77
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1% · rebadged research
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0% · rebadged research
84
Correct Decisions70.4% · rebadged research
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
45
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
29
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
35
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.357 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
57
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
116 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.069 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.092 |
| Sample | 258 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 354 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.243 to 0.351 | +/- 0.054 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.089 to 0.222 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 2.3% to 7.5% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.6% | 32.5% to 47.8% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 27.2% | 21.6% to 32.9% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 7.9% | 5.6% to 11.5% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.320 | 0.230 to 0.367 | +/- 0.068 |
vs LHP
181 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.203 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
297 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.178 |
| K% | 19.2% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |