Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026

Alexander, Blaze

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.291 xwOBA
Range
0.243 to 0.351
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced regular Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.275
xwOBA current pace0.330
xwOBA rolling p500.297
Observed weight41%
xwOBA
0.260 0.278 0.297 0.317 0.335
wOBA
0.295 0.319 0.345 0.371 0.395
ISO
0.076 0.095 0.117 0.139 0.158
K%
22.8% 24.6% 26.6% 28.6% 30.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.0%
20 -19 vs proj
Barrel%2.7%
21 -20 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
59
Exit velocity89.5
61
Hard-hit%45.5%
74 +26 vs proj
K%26.0%
30
xBA0.409
98
xSLG0.581
69
xwOBA0.330
68 +35 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · 3B
7
Arm Strength94.7 · 3B
96
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Range Runs-1.9 · 3B
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · 3B
90
Bolts1.0 · 3B
17
SB Success Rate85.7% · 3B
66
Sprint Speed28.4 · 3B
81
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7% · rebadged research
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.7% · rebadged research
84
Correct Decisions71.5% · rebadged research
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
62
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
37
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
41
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
67
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
21
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Alexander, Blaze · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3072026-05-19: 0.3072026-05-21: 0.3082026-05-23: 0.3142026-05-24: 0.3142026-05-25: 0.3162026-05-26: 0.3202026-05-28: 0.3332026-05-29: 0.3322026-05-30: 0.3292026-05-31: 0.3262026-06-01: 0.330 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Blaze Alexander's tools (86) outpace production (84) by 3 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

97 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Alexander, Blaze · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 4% of plotted batted ballsPull 4%Center field third: 78% of plotted batted ballsCenter 78%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 58.5 / LA -52.02026-03-18 · single · CU · fly_ball · EV 72.7 / LA 43.02026-03-19 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 91.2 / LA 19.02026-03-19 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -6.02026-03-21 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 67.7 / LA 1.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA -3.02026-03-23 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA -4.02026-03-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 65.2 / LA -8.02026-03-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 10.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 27.02026-03-29 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 83.5 / LA 15.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -1.02026-03-30 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 6.02026-03-31 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 15.02026-04-03 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -15.02026-04-03 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 79.7 / LA 20.02026-04-03 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 67.7 / LA 35.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 17.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 3.02026-04-04 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 8.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA 4.02026-04-07 · field error · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -4.02026-04-07 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 73.9 / LA 21.02026-04-07 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 11.02026-04-07 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 4.02026-04-08 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -14.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -4.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 2.02026-04-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 1.02026-04-10 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 81.8 / LA 12.02026-04-10 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA -5.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 35.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA -30.02026-04-14 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 37.6 / LA 13.02026-04-15 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 88.5 / LA 19.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 2.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 87.1 / LA 81.02026-04-16 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 12.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 46.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 43.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.8 / LA 34.02026-04-20 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 33.02026-04-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -4.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -17.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 24.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 8.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 36.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -1.02026-04-30 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 96.0 / LA 20.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.7 / LA -35.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -9.02026-05-01 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA -9.02026-05-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 14.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 39.02026-05-03 · single · CU · fly_ball · EV 66.8 / LA 25.02026-05-03 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 6.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.8 / LA -33.02026-05-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.8 / LA -1.02026-05-04 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 112.9 / LA 10.02026-05-04 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA -13.02026-05-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.1 / LA -4.02026-05-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 85.7 / LA 15.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.7 / LA -44.02026-05-05 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 2.02026-05-06 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 87.7 / LA 23.02026-05-10 · sac bunt · SI · ground_ball · EV 33.1 / LA -28.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 21.02026-05-13 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 30.0 / LA -7.02026-05-13 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA 15.02026-05-13 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 7.02026-05-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 6.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -3.02026-05-18 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 20.02026-05-20 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA -2.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 39.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 26.02026-05-22 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 21.02026-05-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA -27.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 26.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 9.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 34.02026-05-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 27.02026-05-25 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 96.3 / LA 16.02026-05-25 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 6.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA -18.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -15.02026-05-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 18.02026-05-26 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -8.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 64.1 / LA -38.02026-05-26 · fielders choice · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -12.02026-05-27 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 93.4 / LA 12.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 31.02026-05-27 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 12.02026-05-27 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.9 / LA 28.02026-05-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 10.02026-05-31 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 86.5 / LA 23.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA 0.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Alexander, Blaze · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 37.4° Length 7.6 ft Ideal path 51% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Alexander, Blaze · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 10.9° Direction +7.8° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Alexander, Blaze · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 73.0 mph Hard swing rate 34% Whiff / swing 34% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Alexander, Blaze · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 31%31%Whiff: 28%28%Zone contact: 79%79%Contact: 72%72%Hard hit: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.039
wOBA Δ+0.054
Sample150 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances354----
Home Runs10----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2910.243 to 0.351+/- 0.054
ISO0.1280.089 to 0.222+/- 0.067
Barrel%4.4%2.3% to 7.5%+/- 2.6%
Hard-Hit%39.6%32.5% to 47.8%+/- 7.7%
K%27.2%21.6% to 32.9%+/- 5.6%
BB%7.9%5.6% to 11.5%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.3200.230 to 0.367+/- 0.068
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

181 career PA

xwOBA0.203
K%17.8%
BB%6.6%
Barrel4.5%
vs RHP

297 career PA

xwOBA0.178
K%19.2%
BB%5.0%
Barrel3.0%