Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026
Tena, José
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team WSH
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
64
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.316 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.291 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.302 |
| Observed weight | 58% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.287
0.302
0.317
0.330
wOBA
0.277
0.293
0.311
0.329
0.345
ISO
0.109
0.124
0.140
0.157
0.172
K%
24.9%
26.4%
28.1%
29.7%
31.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
46
Exit velocity90.4
83
Hard-hit%45.3%
82
xBA0.341
75
xSLG0.540
62
xwOBA0.291
36
-29 vs proj
BB%8.9%
56
+21 vs proj
Bat speed72.1
80
K%30.4%
16
-48 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 2B
27
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
Small sample
Range Runs-2.1 · 2B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · DH
56
Bolts2.0 · DH
26
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
35
Sprint Speed27.8 · DH
59
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.7% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6% · rebadged research
37
Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research
35
Fastball Stuff+52
0
Mithrandir Stuff+43
1
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · borderline
89
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.249 · validated thin sample
96
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample
17
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
65
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.382 · validated
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
126 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| Sample | 303 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 314 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.315 | 0.255 to 0.355 | +/- 0.050 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.075 to 0.208 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 2.4% to 7.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 32.3% to 53.2% | +/- 10.5% |
| K% | 20.6% | 18.3% to 29.8% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 4.0% to 10.2% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.309 | 0.245 to 0.354 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
84 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.171 |
| K% | 14.9% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 2.6% |
vs RHP
339 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.189 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |