Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026
Tena, José
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team WSH
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.316 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.304 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
xwOBA
0.275
0.292
0.311
0.331
0.348
wOBA
0.272
0.297
0.324
0.351
0.375
ISO
0.098
0.119
0.142
0.165
0.186
K%
22.7%
24.6%
26.7%
28.8%
30.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.9%
20
Barrel%5.2%
52
Bat speed71.7
77
Exit velocity92.6
93
Hard-hit%51.2%
92
+33 vs proj
K%29.6%
14
-45 vs proj
xBA0.371
86
xSLG0.597
74
xwOBA0.304
44
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B · small sample regression applied
60
Regression applied
Range Runs-1.5 · 2B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · DH
65
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1% · rebadged research
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1% · rebadged research
31
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · borderline
86
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265 · validated thin sample
81
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · insufficient sample
21
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
36
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
26
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
83 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| Sample | 135 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 314 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.315 | 0.255 to 0.355 | +/- 0.050 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.075 to 0.208 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 2.4% to 7.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 32.3% to 53.2% | +/- 10.5% |
| K% | 20.6% | 18.3% to 29.8% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 4.0% to 10.2% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.309 | 0.245 to 0.354 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
84 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.171 |
| K% | 14.9% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 2.6% |
vs RHP
339 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.189 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |