Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026
Tena, José
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team WSH
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
74
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.316 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.313 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.315 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.297
0.315
0.332
0.347
wOBA
0.291
0.311
0.334
0.356
0.377
ISO
0.110
0.128
0.149
0.169
0.187
K%
23.2%
24.9%
26.8%
28.6%
30.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
48
Exit velocity91.6
90
Hard-hit%48.8%
88
+24 vs proj
xBA0.374
90
xSLG0.593
75
xwOBA0.313
57
BB%7.0%
30
Bat speed71.8
77
K%28.9%
19
-42 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 2B
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
59
Regression applied
Range Runs-1.4 · 2B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · DH
68
Bolts1.0 · DH
15
Sprint Speed27.8 · DH
61
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.7% · rebadged research
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions64.0% · rebadged research
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline
88
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
85
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
85
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · insufficient sample
21
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
47
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.385 · validated
9
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
26
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
94 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| Sample | 201 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 314 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.315 | 0.255 to 0.355 | +/- 0.050 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.075 to 0.208 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 2.4% to 7.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 32.3% to 53.2% | +/- 10.5% |
| K% | 20.6% | 18.3% to 29.8% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 4.0% to 10.2% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.309 | 0.245 to 0.354 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
84 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.171 |
| K% | 14.9% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 2.6% |
vs RHP
339 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.189 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |