Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Stevens, Chad
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
55
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.266 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.218 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.258 |
| Observed weight | 17% |
xwOBA
0.142
0.197
0.258
0.319
0.374
wOBA
0.201
0.242
0.287
0.333
0.374
ISO
0.000
0.015
0.061
0.107
0.149
K%
17.6%
23.5%
30.1%
36.6%
42.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
80
Range Runs1.7 · 2B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.7% · rebadged research
19
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.8% · rebadged research
93
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
58
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
28
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
63
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
64
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
65
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
51
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
17 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 207 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.246 | 0.068 to 0.346 | +/- 0.139 |
| ISO | 0.112 | 0.001 to 0.214 | +/- 0.106 |
| Barrel% | 2.8% | 0.2% to 5.1% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 28.6% | 5.7% to 40.3% | +/- 17.3% |
| K% | 29.3% | 10.7% to 40.5% | +/- 14.9% |
| BB% | 6.0% | 0.5% to 8.9% | +/- 4.2% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.133 to 0.388 | +/- 0.127 |
vs LHP
3 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.010 |
| K% | 3.4% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
20 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.010 |
| K% | 3.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |