Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Schneider, Davis
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team TOR
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
40
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.303 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.285 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 43% |
xwOBA
0.260
0.277
0.295
0.314
0.331
wOBA
0.272
0.294
0.318
0.342
0.364
ISO
0.122
0.145
0.170
0.195
0.218
K%
24.9%
27.0%
29.3%
31.6%
33.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
51
-19 vs proj
Exit velocity86.9
39
Hard-hit%41.8%
67
xBA0.259
7
xSLG0.488
46
xwOBA0.285
29
-33 vs proj
BB%17.6%
100
+16 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
37
K%33.3%
6
-15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · LF
54
Arm Strength88.4 · LF
12
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
25
Range Runs-3.3 · LF
17
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · LF
35
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.9% · rebadged research
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1% · rebadged research
72
Correct Decisions71.1% · rebadged research
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.244 · borderline
99
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
58
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
32
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample
67
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline114
96
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
57 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| Sample | 165 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 377 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.259 to 0.363 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.174 | 0.112 to 0.269 | +/- 0.079 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 4.2% to 9.7% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.0% | 32.9% to 50.1% | +/- 8.6% |
| K% | 28.6% | 21.8% to 35.5% | +/- 6.8% |
| BB% | 11.3% | 8.4% to 15.3% | +/- 3.5% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.209 to 0.335 | +/- 0.063 |
vs LHP
345 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 22.8% |
| BB% | 10.5% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
532 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 9.3% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |