Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Schneider, Davis
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team TOR
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.303 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.276 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
xwOBA
0.255
0.274
0.295
0.315
0.334
wOBA
0.225
0.252
0.282
0.312
0.340
ISO
0.090
0.116
0.144
0.173
0.199
K%
24.1%
26.5%
29.1%
31.8%
34.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%17.6%
99
+23 vs proj
Barrel%3.9%
33
-32 vs proj
Bat speed68.4
32
Exit velocity85.2
16
Hard-hit%37.5%
40
K%35.3%
3
-16 vs proj
xBA0.275
14
xSLG0.446
30
xwOBA0.276
21
-34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Arm Runs-0.4 · LF
Limited
Range Runs-1.6 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · LF
39
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 78.0% · rebadged research
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9% · rebadged research
64
Correct Decisions71.4% · rebadged research
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.257 · borderline
94
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
70
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
32
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
51
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
77
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
95
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
48 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.038 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.032 |
| Sample | 102 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 377 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.259 to 0.363 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.174 | 0.112 to 0.269 | +/- 0.079 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 4.2% to 9.7% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.0% | 32.9% to 50.1% | +/- 8.6% |
| K% | 28.6% | 21.8% to 35.5% | +/- 6.8% |
| BB% | 11.3% | 8.4% to 15.3% | +/- 3.5% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.209 to 0.335 | +/- 0.063 |
vs LHP
345 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 22.8% |
| BB% | 10.5% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
532 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 9.3% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |