Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Meyers, Jake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.288 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.303 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
xwOBA
0.275
0.288
0.303
0.318
0.331
wOBA
0.274
0.304
0.338
0.372
0.402
ISO
0.091
0.111
0.133
0.155
0.175
K%
18.0%
19.6%
21.5%
23.3%
25.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.6%
17
Barrel%6.7%
72
+41 vs proj
Bat speed64.7
6
Exit velocity86.3
25
Hard-hit%32.3%
21
K%19.1%
67
xBA0.284
18
xSLG0.476
39
xwOBA0.288
30
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Arm Runs-0.1 · CF
Limited
Range Runs0.5 · CF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.7 · CF
61
SB Success Rate33.3% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.4% · rebadged research
91
Correct Decisions70.0% · rebadged research
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
73
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
32
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
49
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample
92
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
34
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
57 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.039 |
| Sample | 89 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 450 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.280 to 0.342 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.113 | 0.092 to 0.205 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 2.8% to 6.7% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.3% | 32.3% to 43.2% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 20.5% | 17.8% to 26.7% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 6.9% | 4.9% to 9.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.257 to 0.341 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
431 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.246 |
| K% | 17.5% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |
vs RHP
1204 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |