Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Meyers, Jake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status IL-60
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
20
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.256 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.286 |
| Observed weight | 43% |
xwOBA
0.261
0.273
0.286
0.300
0.312
wOBA
0.256
0.278
0.302
0.326
0.348
ISO
0.092
0.109
0.127
0.146
0.163
K%
18.4%
19.9%
21.5%
23.1%
24.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
52
+19 vs proj
Exit velocity85.0
19
Hard-hit%28.8%
14
-22 vs proj
xBA0.263
9
xSLG0.404
14
xwOBA0.256
12
-35 vs proj
BB%6.1%
25
Bat speed64.7
6
K%20.2%
66
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · CF
68
Arm Strength88.1 · CF
10
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
88
Range Runs1.6 · CF
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.9 · CF
61
SB Success Rate33.3% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.4% · rebadged research
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4% · rebadged research
69
Correct Decisions69.3% · rebadged research
81
Mithrandir Stuff+70
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
82
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
60
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
67
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
91
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343 · validated
39
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
72 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.043 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| Sample | 163 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 450 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.280 to 0.342 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.113 | 0.092 to 0.205 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 2.8% to 6.7% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.3% | 32.3% to 43.2% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 20.5% | 17.8% to 26.7% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 6.9% | 4.9% to 9.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.257 to 0.341 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
431 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.246 |
| K% | 17.5% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |
vs RHP
1204 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |