Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Robert Jr.., Luis
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status IL-60
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.302 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.324 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.274
0.291
0.309
0.328
0.344
wOBA
0.319
0.347
0.377
0.407
0.435
ISO
0.104
0.123
0.144
0.165
0.184
K%
21.2%
22.9%
24.8%
26.7%
28.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.1%
81
+51 vs proj
Barrel%1.7%
10
-57 vs proj
Bat speed73.8
93
Exit velocity89.5
62
Hard-hit%39.7%
48
K%19.8%
63
+39 vs proj
xBA0.304
32
xSLG0.472
37
xwOBA0.324
62
+16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · CF
82
Arm Strength91.7 · CF
45
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Range Runs-0.4 · CF
44
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts4.0 · CF
49
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
92
SB Success Rate33.3% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.8% · rebadged research
66
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.3% · rebadged research
91
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
22
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
52
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
54
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343 · validated
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
87
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
78 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.071 |
| Sample | 116 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 472 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.280 to 0.370 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.174 | 0.133 to 0.247 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 4.5% to 9.1% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.7% | 36.7% to 48.6% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 27.7% | 23.3% to 33.2% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 4.9% to 9.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.252 to 0.338 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
590 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |
vs RHP
1949 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.256 |
| K% | 24.5% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 6.1% |