Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Diaz, Yainer
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
58
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.339 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.313 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.299
0.310
0.322
0.335
0.346
wOBA
0.318
0.334
0.350
0.367
0.382
ISO
0.138
0.151
0.166
0.180
0.193
K%
14.8%
15.8%
17.0%
18.2%
19.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
64
Exit velocity89.1
65
Hard-hit%38.4%
50
-29 vs proj
xBA0.326
59
xSLG0.499
50
xwOBA0.313
61
-21 vs proj
BB%3.5%
6
Bat speed70.9
71
K%15.8%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.5 · C
36
Catcher Throwing-0.0 · C
56
Framing Runs-3.6 · C
18
Pop Time1.9 · C
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · C
16
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.6% · rebadged research
10
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7% · rebadged research
76
Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
20
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
22
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample
13
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
77
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
22
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated
35
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
197 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.021 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| Sample | 368 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 556 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.304 to 0.378 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.106 to 0.226 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.9% to 8.7% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.6% | 40.7% to 52.1% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 18.2% | 14.0% to 22.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 4.1% | 2.8% to 7.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.304 | 0.278 to 0.352 | +/- 0.037 |
vs LHP
423 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.293 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
1225 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.285 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |