Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Sosa, Lenyn
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team TOR
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 26
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.319 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.249 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
xwOBA
0.264
0.278
0.293
0.309
0.323
wOBA
0.199
0.222
0.247
0.273
0.296
ISO
0.094
0.110
0.128
0.146
0.162
K%
18.8%
20.2%
21.7%
23.3%
24.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%1.5%
0
Barrel%4.6%
44
-18 vs proj
Bat speed70.7
68
Exit velocity88.0
44
Hard-hit%37.0%
38
-19 vs proj
K%20.8%
58
xBA0.285
18
xSLG0.443
28
xwOBA0.249
7
-52 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 2B
16
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
Limited
Range Runs-0.8 · 2B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.7 · 2B
33
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 47.7% · rebadged research
4
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 34.7% · rebadged research
5
Correct Decisions53.3% · rebadged research
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.253 · borderline
98
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.255 · insufficient sample
97
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
32
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
29
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline79
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
100 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.071 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.073 |
| Sample | 130 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 520 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.320 | 0.296 to 0.370 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.106 to 0.207 | +/- 0.051 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.6% to 8.8% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.6% | 38.9% to 49.8% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 21.0% | 18.7% to 26.4% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 4.2% | 2.8% to 7.3% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.252 to 0.329 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
325 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 16.3% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |
vs RHP
831 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.252 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 2.6% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |