Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
Peraza, Oswald
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team LAA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.331 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.269
0.288
0.309
0.330
0.349
wOBA
0.352
0.373
0.396
0.420
0.441
ISO
0.103
0.126
0.152
0.179
0.202
K%
22.1%
23.8%
25.7%
27.6%
29.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.6%
11
-22 vs proj
Barrel%5.6%
58
+34 vs proj
Bat speed69.8
51
Exit velocity85.4
17
Hard-hit%34.1%
27
K%24.4%
36
xBA0.372
87
xSLG0.586
71
xwOBA0.331
69
+41 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
69
Arm Strength88.9 · 2B
74
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
45
Range Runs1.0 · 2B
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · 2B
60
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
60
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
78
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.2% · rebadged research
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.6% · rebadged research
90
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
83
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.308 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
74
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated
7
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
59
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
127 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.045 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.110 |
| Sample | 197 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 345 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.286 | 0.223 to 0.354 | +/- 0.066 |
| ISO | 0.110 | 0.021 to 0.200 | +/- 0.089 |
| Barrel% | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.5% | 27.8% to 46.9% | +/- 9.6% |
| K% | 26.3% | 23.3% to 34.8% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 5.1% to 10.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.191 to 0.347 | +/- 0.078 |
vs LHP
173 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.165 |
| K% | 18.8% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |
vs RHP
418 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.172 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |