Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Freeman, Tyler
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
28
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.317 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.323 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.298
0.310
0.323
0.336
0.348
wOBA
0.291
0.309
0.329
0.349
0.366
ISO
0.080
0.095
0.111
0.127
0.142
K%
9.9%
11.1%
12.4%
13.7%
14.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.2%
5
Exit velocity84.9
17
Hard-hit%34.9%
31
xBA0.311
37
xSLG0.416
17
xwOBA0.317
62
BB%4.3%
9
-22 vs proj
Bat speed66.1
12
K%12.2%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.2 · RF
88
Arm Strength95.2 · RF
66
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
11
Range Runs-6.6 · RF
2
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.4 · RF
5
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
7
Sprint Speed27.6 · RF
55
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions67.2% · rebadged research
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
41
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
31
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
92
Resists FastballwOBA 0.366 · validated
12
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.334 · validated
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
135 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| Sample | 255 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 467 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.327 | 0.301 to 0.363 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.119 | 0.086 to 0.209 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 2.6% | 1.4% to 5.1% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.2% | 32.9% to 45.8% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 12.7% | 10.2% to 19.1% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 5.6% to 10.7% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.279 | 0.243 to 0.313 | +/- 0.035 |
vs LHP
384 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 10.2% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |
vs RHP
758 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 10.3% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |