Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Johnson, Ivan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 28
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
45
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.270 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.226 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.266 |
| Observed weight | 10% |
xwOBA
0.169
0.215
0.266
0.317
0.363
wOBA
0.199
0.256
0.318
0.381
0.438
ISO
0.039
0.074
0.114
0.153
0.188
K%
16.1%
22.2%
29.0%
35.8%
41.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.4 · LF
75
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.2 · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7% · rebadged research
57
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 41.2% · rebadged research
2
Correct Decisions62.5% · rebadged research
19
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
51
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
54
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
56
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
58
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline87
7
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
11 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.292 | 0.114 to 0.329 | +/- 0.107 |
| ISO | 0.111 | 0.024 to 0.189 | +/- 0.083 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 0.2% to 5.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.5% | 10.2% to 38.7% | +/- 14.3% |
| K% | 28.8% | 9.7% to 38.4% | +/- 14.3% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 0.8% to 9.4% | +/- 4.3% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.162 to 0.353 | +/- 0.095 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.8% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
7 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.7% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |