Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026

Friedl, Tj

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.297 xwOBA
Range
0.263 to 0.338
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.292
xwOBA current pace0.252
xwOBA rolling p500.273
Observed weight47%
xwOBA
0.246 0.259 0.273 0.288 0.301
wOBA
0.259 0.279 0.302 0.324 0.344
ISO
0.087 0.102 0.119 0.136 0.152
K%
16.7% 18.1% 19.6% 21.1% 22.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.8%
38 -24 vs proj
Barrel%2.1%
15
Bat speed66.4
15
Exit velocity84.0
10
Hard-hit%33.6%
25
K%22.4%
47 -34 vs proj
xBA0.272
12
xSLG0.370
8
xwOBA0.252
8 -30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · CF
20
Arm Strength89.9 · CF
26
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
20
Range Runs1.0 · CF
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · CF
82
Sprint Speed26.6 · CF
30
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7% · rebadged research
71
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1% · rebadged research
40
Correct Decisions67.4% · rebadged research
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
29
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.238 · validated thin sample
99
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306 · validated
95
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
65
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Friedl, Tj · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.2582026-05-19: 0.2552026-05-21: 0.2522026-05-23: 0.2522026-05-24: 0.2512026-05-25: 0.2512026-05-26: 0.2512026-05-28: 0.2532026-05-29: 0.2522026-05-30: 0.2522026-05-31: 0.2512026-06-01: 0.252 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

126 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Friedl, Tj · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsPull 9%Center field third: 82% of plotted batted ballsCenter 82%Right field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsOppo 10% LF 328 CF 404 RF 325 2026-03-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 12.02026-03-16 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 4.02026-03-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 29.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-03-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA -13.02026-03-21 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 102.1 / LA 10.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.2 / LA 53.02026-03-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 23.0 / LA 16.02026-03-23 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 17.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA -11.02026-03-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 12.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA -19.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -8.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 65.5 / LA 26.02026-03-28 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 2.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · ground_ball2026-03-29 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 83.5 / LA 20.02026-03-29 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 65.6 / LA -9.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.1 / LA -25.02026-03-30 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 75.2 / LA -3.02026-03-31 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA -13.02026-03-31 · double play · FF · line_drive · EV 26.8 / LA 37.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 83.3 / LA 61.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 30.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · popup · EV 68.6 / LA 81.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -24.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -4.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.7 / LA -19.02026-04-05 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 4.02026-04-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 0.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.5 / LA 58.02026-04-06 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 39.7 / LA -73.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 69.2 / LA 44.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA -23.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · popup · EV 85.3 / LA 70.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 36.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA -9.02026-04-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 8.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.3 / LA 63.02026-04-08 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 25.6 / LA -33.02026-04-08 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 86.8 / LA 11.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -16.02026-04-09 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 41.02026-04-09 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 71.2 / LA -7.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 45.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-04-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.5 / LA 66.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -9.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.1 / LA 66.02026-04-11 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 33.9 / LA 56.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-04-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA 0.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 1.02026-04-15 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 9.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 77.6 / LA 26.02026-04-15 · sac bunt · FC · ground_ball2026-04-16 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -3.02026-04-16 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 86.7 / LA 12.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 42.4 / LA -1.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 57.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 88.6 / LA 19.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.6 / LA 23.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 20.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 46.02026-04-18 · sac bunt · FS · ground_ball · EV 36.8 / LA -69.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 32.02026-04-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 7.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · popup · EV 71.1 / LA 71.02026-04-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.1 / LA 18.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 44.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 43.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA -27.02026-04-20 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 25.02026-04-20 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 11.02026-04-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.1 / LA 19.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 33.02026-04-22 · fielders choice out · CU · ground_ball · EV 66.2 / LA -46.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 85.3 / LA 54.02026-04-25 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 26.02026-04-25 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 68.1 / LA 25.02026-04-25 · sac bunt · KC · ground_ball · EV 25.2 / LA -20.02026-04-25 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 52.0 / LA 28.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 50.02026-04-26 · double · KC · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 26.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA -2.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · popup · EV 82.5 / LA 84.02026-04-29 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 2.02026-04-29 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -5.02026-04-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 89.3 / LA 11.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 35.02026-04-30 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 28.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 17.02026-05-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.7 / LA 15.02026-05-01 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 19.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 81.6 / LA 74.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -3.02026-05-02 · field out · FS · popup · EV 75.0 / LA 63.02026-05-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 43.0 / LA -70.02026-05-02 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 17.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.8 / LA 25.02026-05-03 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -18.02026-05-03 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 14.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 21.02026-05-04 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA -7.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.3 / LA -10.02026-05-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 33.02026-05-05 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -16.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.0 / LA -32.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -15.02026-05-06 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 85.0 / LA 17.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 46.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 85.8 / LA 10.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA -18.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 66.1 / LA 14.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-05-12 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 12.02026-05-13 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 4.02026-05-18 · sac fly · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 38.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.0 / LA 48.02026-05-18 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 7.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.6 / LA -21.02026-05-23 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 35.4 / LA -25.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -4.02026-05-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 45.6 / LA -66.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 83.4 / LA 64.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Friedl, Tj · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 28.8° Length 6.9 ft Ideal path 66% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Friedl, Tj · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 9.8° Direction -7.3° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Friedl, Tj · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 70.7 mph Hard swing rate 9% Whiff / swing 19% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Friedl, Tj · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 88%88%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.045
wOBA Δ+0.005
Sample192 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances592----
Home Runs16----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2970.263 to 0.338+/- 0.038
ISO0.1280.102 to 0.214+/- 0.056
Barrel%2.5%0.8% to 4.3%+/- 1.8%
Hard-Hit%31.9%26.7% to 38.5%+/- 5.9%
K%16.7%13.9% to 22.4%+/- 4.3%
BB%9.7%7.5% to 12.4%+/- 2.5%
BABIP0.2820.256 to 0.329+/- 0.036
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

446 career PA

xwOBA0.228
K%16.8%
BB%7.6%
Barrel1.5%
vs RHP

1504 career PA

xwOBA0.252
K%13.7%
BB%8.9%
Barrel1.9%