Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026

Wallner, Matt

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.335 xwOBA
Range
0.289 to 0.384
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Impact slugger Age 29 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.330
xwOBA current pace0.282
xwOBA rolling p500.310
Observed weight41%
xwOBA
0.276 0.293 0.310 0.328 0.344
wOBA
0.273 0.296 0.322 0.347 0.371
ISO
0.158 0.178 0.201 0.223 0.243
K%
28.9% 31.0% 33.4% 35.8% 37.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.9%
40 -32 vs proj
Barrel%6.0%
62 -18 vs proj
Bat speed73.0
88
Exit velocity89.2
58
Hard-hit%42.3%
61
K%37.1%
1
xBA0.358
80
xSLG0.597
75
xwOBA0.282
25 -47 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.8 · RF
7
Arm Strength99.3 · RF
94
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · RF
3
Range Runs-3.0 · RF
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · RF
20
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
61
Correct Decisions64.4% · rebadged research
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · borderline
95
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
62
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
49
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
44
Resists FastballwOBA 0.307 · validated
95
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Wallner, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.2822026-05-19: 0.2822026-05-21: 0.2822026-05-23: 0.2822026-05-24: 0.2822026-05-25: 0.2822026-05-26: 0.2822026-05-28: 0.2822026-05-29: 0.2822026-05-30: 0.2822026-05-31: 0.2822026-06-01: 0.282 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

78 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Wallner, Matt · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 6% of plotted batted ballsPull 6%Center field third: 73% of plotted batted ballsCenter 73%Right field third: 21% of plotted batted ballsOppo 21% LF 339 CF 403 RF 328 2026-03-16 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.6 / LA 26.02026-03-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.6 / LA 6.02026-03-19 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.3 / LA -10.02026-03-19 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 16.02026-03-21 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.3 / LA 30.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 42.02026-03-22 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 104.2 / LA 21.02026-03-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -7.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -2.02026-03-24 · field out · FC · popup · EV 82.3 / LA 81.02026-03-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 46.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.2 / LA -22.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 44.02026-03-28 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -4.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 15.02026-03-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 12.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -6.02026-03-30 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 23.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 38.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.0 / LA -23.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 52.02026-04-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 88.0 / LA 19.02026-04-02 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 20.02026-04-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 35.02026-04-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.8 / LA 36.02026-04-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -17.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 41.02026-04-05 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 110.1 / LA 36.02026-04-05 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 50.0 / LA -50.02026-04-06 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 85.3 / LA 19.02026-04-06 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 18.02026-04-07 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 11.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 6.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -1.02026-04-08 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 17.02026-04-09 · grounded into double play · KC · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 6.02026-04-09 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -2.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 18.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA -11.02026-04-12 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 5.02026-04-12 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 12.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · popup · EV 74.4 / LA 74.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 46.1 / LA -12.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 62.9 / LA -25.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 41.2 / LA -24.02026-04-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.4 / LA -9.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 81.2 / LA 33.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.6 / LA -56.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 110.3 / LA 17.02026-04-21 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 12.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 6.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA -2.02026-04-22 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 74.9 / LA 22.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -1.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -24.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · popup · EV 82.1 / LA 70.02026-04-24 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -5.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 22.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.2 / LA -6.02026-04-25 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA -47.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA -16.02026-04-26 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 44.02026-04-26 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -1.02026-04-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.3 / LA -40.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 65.8 / LA -12.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA 7.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 57.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 65.7 / LA -71.02026-05-03 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 93.4 / LA 10.02026-05-03 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 109.3 / LA 21.02026-05-03 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 75.8 / LA 37.02026-05-03 · field out · FS · popup · EV 68.5 / LA 69.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 53.1 / LA -20.02026-05-06 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.9 / LA 22.02026-05-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 6.02026-05-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 7.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 53.02026-05-08 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.9 / LA -19.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Wallner, Matt · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 27.2° Length 7.5 ft Ideal path 61% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Wallner, Matt · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 10.8° Direction -6.8° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Wallner, Matt · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 74.8 mph Hard swing rate 53% Whiff / swing 41% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Wallner, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 31%31%Whiff: 39%39%Zone contact: 73%73%Contact: 61%61%Hard hit: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.275 vs 0.232 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.054
wOBA Δ-0.013
Sample151 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances435----
Home Runs21----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3350.289 to 0.384+/- 0.047
ISO0.2160.175 to 0.310+/- 0.067
Barrel%7.6%4.8% to 9.9%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%45.9%40.7% to 54.0%+/- 6.6%
K%31.9%23.9% to 37.4%+/- 6.7%
BB%10.9%7.7% to 13.4%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.2790.215 to 0.331+/- 0.058
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

215 career PA

xwOBA0.232
K%22.4%
BB%7.3%
Barrel3.9%
vs RHP

821 career PA

xwOBA0.275
K%24.9%
BB%8.5%
Barrel6.8%