Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Raley, Luke

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.315 xwOBA
Range
0.269 to 0.350
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced regular Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
84
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
69
Defense4 metrics
31
Speed2 metrics
70
Plate skills10 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.297
xwOBA current pace0.343
xwOBA rolling p500.323
Observed weight56%
xwOBA
0.296 0.309 0.323 0.337 0.350
wOBA
0.340 0.358 0.378 0.397 0.415
ISO
0.166 0.185 0.205 0.226 0.245
K%
27.0% 28.7% 30.5% 32.4% 34.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.0%
96 +42 vs proj
Exit velocity88.7
57
Hard-hit%45.5%
78
xBA0.392
95
xSLG0.757
97
xwOBA0.343
81 +23 vs proj
BB%5.3%
15 -16 vs proj
Bat speed73.1
89
K%31.7%
10
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · RF
16
Arm Strength97.9 · RF
87
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
11
Range Runs-4.4 · RF
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · RF
56
Sprint Speed28.6 · RF
84
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.4% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.6% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
60
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
62
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
71
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.393 · validated
3
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Raley, Luke · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.343 2026-07-05: 0.3522026-07-06: 0.3492026-07-07: 0.3492026-07-08: 0.3492026-07-09: 0.3472026-07-10: 0.3442026-07-11: 0.3452026-07-12: 0.3422026-07-13: 0.3432026-07-14: 0.3432026-07-15: 0.3432026-07-16: 0.343 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

110 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Raley, Luke · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 63% of plotted batted ballsCenter 63%Right field third: 24% of plotted batted ballsOppo 24% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-03-15 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 113.4 / LA 14.02026-03-15 · field out · ST · popup · EV 92.9 / LA 63.02026-03-15 · field out · FC · popup · EV 92.9 / LA 72.02026-03-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 53.8 / LA -58.02026-03-17 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 29.02026-03-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · LA -47.02026-03-17 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 3.02026-03-18 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 30.02026-03-18 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 112.3 / LA 27.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 68.5 / LA 49.02026-03-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA -4.02026-03-19 · fielders choice · CH · ground_ball · EV 54.6 / LA -48.02026-03-23 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 78.9 / LA 25.02026-03-26 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 113.8 / LA 22.02026-03-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 67.0 / LA 45.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.8 / LA 21.02026-03-27 · home run · FC · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 26.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 8.02026-03-28 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.9 / LA 31.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.8 / LA 39.02026-03-29 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA 11.02026-04-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.3 / LA 14.02026-04-01 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 29.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.5 / LA -40.02026-04-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 75.6 / LA 6.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 82.9 / LA 13.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 24.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 3.02026-04-05 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 4.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -3.02026-04-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -3.02026-04-07 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 2.02026-04-10 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 23.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 58.8 / LA -41.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -4.02026-04-12 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -1.02026-04-12 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 51.02026-04-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 11.02026-04-12 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA -1.02026-04-12 · triple · SI · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 14.02026-04-13 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 84.9 / LA 17.02026-04-13 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 10.02026-04-13 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 24.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 107.2 / LA 19.02026-04-14 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 34.1 / LA -13.02026-04-15 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 113.2 / LA 27.02026-04-15 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 15.02026-04-15 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 31.02026-04-15 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 83.6 / LA 15.02026-04-16 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 88.3 / LA 23.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · popup · EV 79.3 / LA 58.02026-04-18 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 112.7 / LA 39.02026-04-18 · fielders choice · FC · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -4.02026-04-18 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 109.4 / LA 3.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 86.7 / LA 13.02026-04-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 50.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 38.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 19.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -17.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 84.0 / LA 32.02026-04-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -34.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA 8.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.5 / LA 83.02026-04-29 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 50.02026-05-02 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 62.02026-05-02 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 1.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 57.02026-05-04 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 25.02026-05-05 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 38.8 / LA -65.02026-05-08 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 113.4 / LA 20.02026-05-08 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -22.02026-05-08 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 27.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA 5.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 36.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.9 / LA -38.02026-05-12 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 98.9 / LA 16.02026-05-13 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 7.02026-05-13 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 36.02026-05-14 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 4.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 104.6 / LA 20.02026-05-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 64.4 / LA -32.02026-05-14 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 20.02026-05-14 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 30.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -6.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 59.8 / LA -50.02026-05-16 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 69.7 / LA -28.02026-05-16 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 92.3 / LA 13.02026-05-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -9.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 49.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 43.02026-05-23 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 74.1 / LA 21.02026-05-23 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 91.9 / LA 25.02026-05-23 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -39.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 32.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 43.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -29.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 52.9 / LA -78.02026-05-24 · field out · ST · popup · EV 63.9 / LA 65.02026-05-25 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.8 / LA 52.02026-05-25 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 32.02026-05-25 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 13.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 23.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 32.02026-05-31 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 32.9 / LA -20.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -10.02026-06-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.8 / LA -45.02026-06-07 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 19.02026-06-07 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 79.1 / LA 20.02026-06-07 · sac bunt · SI · ground_ball · EV 39.2 / LA -38.02026-06-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 72.0 / LA 21.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Raley, Luke · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 75.5 mph Hard swing rate 61% Whiff / swing 51% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Raley, Luke · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 33%33%Whiff: 38%38%Zone contact: 74%74%Contact: 62%62%Hard hit: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.252 vs 0.215 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
3
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.029
wOBA Δ+0.063
Sample281 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances372----
Home Runs14----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3150.269 to 0.350+/- 0.040
ISO0.1630.112 to 0.269+/- 0.079
Barrel%5.4%3.5% to 8.4%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%42.7%36.5% to 51.5%+/- 7.5%
K%28.8%23.2% to 36.7%+/- 6.7%
BB%7.1%4.7% to 10.1%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.3020.243 to 0.359+/- 0.058
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

208 career PA

xwOBA0.215
K%23.0%
BB%5.6%
Barrel3.8%
vs RHP

1103 career PA

xwOBA0.252
K%23.4%
BB%5.4%
Barrel5.3%