Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Lopez, Nicky
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TEX
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
7
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.286 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.257 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.275 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.231
0.252
0.275
0.298
0.319
wOBA
0.309
0.333
0.361
0.388
0.413
ISO
0.034
0.057
0.082
0.108
0.131
K%
10.6%
12.4%
14.5%
16.6%
18.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
1
Exit velocity81.6
4
Hard-hit%20.7%
3
xBA0.290
21
xSLG0.345
3
xwOBA0.257
10
-18 vs proj
BB%4.3%
9
-44 vs proj
Bat speed62.8
3
K%12.9%
94
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 2B
33
Arm Strength89.1 · 2B
70
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 2B
18
Range Runs-2.6 · 2B
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · 2B
70
SB Success Rate60.0% · 2B
11
Sprint Speed27.8 · 2B
61
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.3% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.2% · rebadged research
11
Correct Decisions57.1% · rebadged research
5
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
66
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
18
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
84
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
27
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372 · validated
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85
6
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
43 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.074 |
| Sample | 139 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 260 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 3 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.287 | 0.224 to 0.355 | +/- 0.065 |
| ISO | 0.086 | 0.038 to 0.193 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% | 1.5% | 0.2% to 4.4% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 22.2% | 14.4% to 36.9% | +/- 11.3% |
| K% | 17.0% | 12.1% to 24.1% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 5.3% to 12.1% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.214 to 0.327 | +/- 0.056 |
vs LHP
569 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.175 |
| K% | 11.8% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 0.6% |
vs RHP
1889 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.192 |
| K% | 10.4% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 0.7% |