Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Lopez, Nicky
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TEX
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
11
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.286 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.269 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.276 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.242
0.258
0.276
0.295
0.311
wOBA
0.279
0.296
0.314
0.333
0.350
ISO
0.032
0.048
0.067
0.085
0.102
K%
12.5%
14.0%
15.6%
17.2%
18.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
1
Exit velocity80.8
3
Hard-hit%22.2%
4
xBA0.304
33
xSLG0.364
5
xwOBA0.269
18
BB%5.0%
14
-41 vs proj
Bat speed62.8
2
K%15.7%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 2B
31
Arm Strength89.1 · 2B
66
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
47
Range Runs1.5 · 2B
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
4
Sprint Speed27.6 · 2B
53
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.5% · rebadged research
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
42
Correct Decisions63.6% · rebadged research
24
Fastball Stuff+78
1
Mithrandir Stuff+72
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
76
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
37
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
42
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
22
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
103 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.018 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.028 |
| Sample | 280 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 260 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 3 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.287 | 0.224 to 0.355 | +/- 0.065 |
| ISO | 0.086 | 0.038 to 0.193 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% | 1.5% | 0.2% to 4.4% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 22.2% | 14.4% to 36.9% | +/- 11.3% |
| K% | 17.0% | 12.2% to 24.1% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 5.3% to 12.1% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.214 to 0.327 | +/- 0.056 |
vs LHP
569 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.175 |
| K% | 11.8% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 0.6% |
vs RHP
1889 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.192 |
| K% | 10.4% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 0.7% |