Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.266 vs 0.233 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
Hays, Austin
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CWS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.291 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.283 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.290 |
| Observed weight | 21% |
xwOBA
0.256
0.272
0.290
0.307
0.323
wOBA
0.313
0.351
0.394
0.437
0.476
ISO
0.091
0.113
0.137
0.162
0.184
K%
21.6%
23.4%
25.4%
27.3%
29.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%1.7%
1
-18 vs proj
Barrel%1.7%
10
-38 vs proj
Bat speed68.9
39
Exit velocity87.9
43
Hard-hit%46.5%
78
+36 vs proj
K%25.4%
32
xBA0.409
98
xSLG0.523
54
xwOBA0.283
26
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
20
Arm Runs-0.9 · LF
Limited
Range Runs-0.7 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · LF
50
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.8% · rebadged research
16
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4% · rebadged research
68
Correct Decisions63.3% · rebadged research
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · borderline
86
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
53
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
59
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364 · validated
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
52
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
24
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
43 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.108 |
| Sample | 59 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 446 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.286 | 0.258 to 0.333 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.098 to 0.213 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 3.6% to 7.5% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.1% | 34.4% to 45.0% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 23.9% | 21.3% to 30.0% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.4% to 8.9% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.312 | 0.275 to 0.376 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
852 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 5.9% |
vs RHP
1893 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 20.7% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |