Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
None
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team HOU
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
35
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.263 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.282 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.268 |
| Observed weight | 26% |
xwOBA
0.188
0.226
0.268
0.310
0.347
wOBA
0.237
0.268
0.303
0.338
0.370
ISO
0.029
0.067
0.110
0.153
0.191
K%
11.2%
15.1%
19.4%
23.8%
27.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
49
+32 vs proj
Exit velocity88.0
46
Hard-hit%36.5%
35
+29 vs proj
xBA0.287
19
xSLG0.472
38
xwOBA0.282
24
+16 vs proj
BB%2.5%
2
-16 vs proj
Bat speed67.0
21
K%16.5%
82
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength88.6 · SS
71
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · SS
16
Range Runs-1.1 · SS
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.9 · SS
66
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 42.9% · rebadged research
1
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.6% · rebadged research
10
Correct Decisions56.5% · rebadged research
4
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · borderline
96
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
56
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline74
2
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
58 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.027 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.049 |
| Sample | 79 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 212 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.255 | 0.106 to 0.316 | +/- 0.105 |
| ISO | 0.093 | 0.001 to 0.218 | +/- 0.109 |
| Barrel% | 2.4% | 0.2% to 4.7% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 24.8% | 9.4% to 39.5% | +/- 15.0% |
| K% | 19.0% | 9.7% to 31.9% | +/- 11.1% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 0.5% to 10.2% | +/- 4.8% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.148 to 0.357 | +/- 0.105 |
vs LHP
15 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.041 |
| K% | 4.2% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |
vs RHP
105 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.043 |
| K% | 3.7% |
| BB% | 0.8% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |