Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / STL · 2026

Gorman, Nolan

Young power bat with breakout ceiling

Primary
0.312 xwOBA
Range
0.272 to 0.368
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Impact slugger Age 26 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
52
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
53
Defense3 metrics
51
Speed1 metrics
7
Plate skills10 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.309
xwOBA current pace0.278
xwOBA rolling p500.293
Observed weight52%
xwOBA
0.263 0.277 0.293 0.308 0.323
wOBA
0.249 0.267 0.286 0.306 0.324
ISO
0.120 0.136 0.153 0.170 0.185
K%
29.1% 30.7% 32.5% 34.3% 35.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
48 -32 vs proj
Exit velocity89.3
65
Hard-hit%44.1%
72
xBA0.312
39
xSLG0.555
65
xwOBA0.278
22 -33 vs proj
BB%11.6%
81
Bat speed71.4
74
K%31.8%
9
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.1 · 3B
24
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 3B
68
Range Runs0.9 · 3B
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.2 · 3B
7
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.1% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
71
Correct Decisions66.9% · rebadged research
58
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
44
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.224 · validated thin sample
100
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
75
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
79
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Gorman, Nolan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.278 2026-07-06: 0.2782026-07-07: 0.2782026-07-08: 0.2782026-07-09: 0.2782026-07-10: 0.2782026-07-11: 0.2782026-07-12: 0.2782026-07-13: 0.2782026-07-14: 0.2782026-07-15: 0.2782026-07-16: 0.2782026-07-17: 0.278 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

128 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Gorman, Nolan · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsPull 16%Center field third: 57% of plotted batted ballsCenter 57%Right field third: 27% of plotted batted ballsOppo 27% LF 336 CF 400 RF 335 2026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 60.02026-03-17 · field out · ST · popup · EV 64.9 / LA 25.02026-03-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 5.02026-03-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 15.02026-03-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 37.02026-03-21 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 16.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 57.02026-03-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -6.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 17.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.0 / LA -18.02026-03-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 80.6 / LA 19.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 48.02026-03-29 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.8 / LA 34.02026-03-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.1 / LA -19.02026-03-30 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 110.3 / LA 39.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · popup · EV 62.4 / LA 52.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.4 / LA -40.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA 6.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 40.02026-04-01 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 86.8 / LA 23.02026-04-01 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 102.2 / LA 10.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 49.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.1 / LA -16.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.0 / LA 67.02026-04-05 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 5.02026-04-05 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 44.8 / LA 0.02026-04-05 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.0 / LA 39.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 39.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -17.02026-04-07 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 16.02026-04-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 80.3 / LA 23.02026-04-07 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 1.02026-04-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 59.2 / LA -31.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 85.4 / LA 25.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 42.02026-04-12 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 36.02026-04-13 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 79.7 / LA 15.02026-04-14 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 42.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 60.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 31.02026-04-15 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.3 / LA 53.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.3 / LA 67.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 45.02026-04-17 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 38.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 30.02026-04-18 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 70.7 / LA -19.02026-04-18 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 86.1 / LA 22.02026-04-18 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 15.02026-04-18 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.6 / LA 9.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.4 / LA 7.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 20.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.5 / LA 9.02026-04-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -9.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 51.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -1.02026-04-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 75.6 / LA 29.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.3 / LA 18.02026-04-22 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 83.8 / LA 37.02026-04-22 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 83.5 / LA 16.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 111.9 / LA 20.02026-04-24 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 9.02026-04-24 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 93.5 / LA 22.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 44.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 57.02026-04-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.9 / LA 12.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 53.7 / LA -21.02026-04-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.7 / LA 10.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 1.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.2 / LA 4.02026-04-27 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 32.02026-04-28 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 43.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -39.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 83.4 / LA 54.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.8 / LA -55.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 71.0 / LA 52.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 59.5 / LA -17.02026-04-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 9.02026-04-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 12.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 52.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 55.7 / LA -79.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 19.02026-05-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 26.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 31.02026-05-02 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 30.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.7 / LA 68.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · popup · EV 102.2 / LA 64.02026-05-04 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 15.02026-05-04 · field out · ST · popup · EV 74.6 / LA 86.02026-05-04 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 10.02026-05-06 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 88.9 / LA 13.02026-05-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -3.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 99.1 / LA 10.02026-05-09 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 84.0 / LA 20.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 58.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 110.8 / LA 9.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 107.6 / LA 17.02026-05-12 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 12.02026-05-13 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 88.6 / LA 17.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 46.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 81.8 / LA 23.02026-05-14 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 36.0 / LA -23.02026-05-14 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 104.6 / LA 19.02026-05-14 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 50.02026-05-14 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 67.1 / LA 32.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 47.02026-05-15 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 1.02026-05-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.0 / LA 5.02026-05-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -8.02026-05-17 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 2.02026-05-19 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 0.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 37.02026-05-19 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 29.02026-05-20 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 33.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 50.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.6 / LA 78.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 56.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -14.02026-05-23 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 46.02026-05-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.7 / LA -1.02026-05-23 · field out · FC · popup · EV 90.5 / LA 68.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 82.0 / LA 29.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 58.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.2 / LA 32.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.7 / LA 41.02026-05-27 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 79.5 / LA 14.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 1.02026-06-07 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 61.02026-06-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA -20.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Gorman, Nolan · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 72.0 mph Hard swing rate 21% Whiff / swing 34% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Gorman, Nolan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 31%31%Whiff: 38%38%Zone contact: 74%74%Contact: 62%62%Hard hit: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.033
wOBA Δ-0.025
Sample242 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances451----
Home Runs19----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3120.272 to 0.368+/- 0.048
ISO0.1970.144 to 0.267+/- 0.062
Barrel%7.2%4.6% to 9.7%+/- 2.6%
Hard-Hit%42.6%36.5% to 49.6%+/- 6.5%
K%33.8%26.2% to 37.8%+/- 5.8%
BB%10.4%7.9% to 13.7%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.2790.223 to 0.331+/- 0.054
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

352 career PA

xwOBA0.235
K%25.3%
BB%8.2%
Barrel4.3%
vs RHP

1327 career PA

xwOBA0.258
K%27.5%
BB%9.2%
Barrel6.2%