Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026

Smith, Will

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.346 xwOBA
Range
0.296 to 0.389
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Impact slugger Age 31 Status IL-10
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
79
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
72
Defense4 metrics
48
Speed1 metrics
44
Plate skills10 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.342
xwOBA current pace0.385
xwOBA rolling p500.363
Observed weight49%
xwOBA
0.332 0.347 0.363 0.380 0.395
wOBA
0.295 0.314 0.336 0.358 0.378
ISO
0.118 0.133 0.149 0.166 0.180
K%
17.2% 18.4% 19.9% 21.3% 22.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.4%
93 +16 vs proj
Exit velocity90.1
75
Hard-hit%40.1%
54
xBA0.343
72
xSLG0.615
80
xwOBA0.385
97
BB%10.8%
75
Bat speed68.5
35
K%18.9%
70
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.8 · C
84
Catcher Throwing-0.5 · C
35
Framing Runs-0.9 · C
34
Pop Time2.0 · C
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · C
44
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.3% · rebadged research
91
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research
51
Correct Decisions70.2% · rebadged research
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
45
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
61
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
92
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
25
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
87
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Smith, Will · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.385 2026-07-05: 0.3852026-07-06: 0.3852026-07-07: 0.3852026-07-08: 0.3852026-07-09: 0.3852026-07-10: 0.3852026-07-11: 0.3852026-07-12: 0.3852026-07-13: 0.3852026-07-14: 0.3852026-07-15: 0.3852026-07-16: 0.385 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

140 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Smith, Will · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsPull 10%Center field third: 68% of plotted batted ballsCenter 68%Right field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsOppo 22% LF 330 CF 400 RF 330 2026-03-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 63.02026-03-20 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 17.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -27.02026-03-22 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 7.02026-03-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 76.2 / LA 37.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 11.02026-03-26 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 28.02026-03-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 62.1 / LA 0.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 17.02026-03-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 89.5 / LA -9.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA -14.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · popup · EV 68.2 / LA 55.02026-03-28 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 26.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.5 / LA -34.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.0 / LA 20.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 49.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 23.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 17.02026-03-31 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 82.5 / LA 15.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 26.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 54.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 28.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA 3.02026-04-03 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 102.9 / LA 15.02026-04-04 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 72.3 / LA 28.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · popup · EV 80.2 / LA 69.02026-04-04 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 78.9 / LA 22.02026-04-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 61.5 / LA -48.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 41.02026-04-07 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -31.02026-04-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 37.02026-04-07 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 26.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 32.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · popup · EV 85.9 / LA 60.02026-04-08 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 56.3 / LA -46.02026-04-08 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 84.9 / LA 14.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · popup · EV 93.6 / LA 66.02026-04-10 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA -19.02026-04-10 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA -11.02026-04-11 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 110.8 / LA 11.02026-04-11 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA -4.02026-04-13 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 0.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 14.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 44.02026-04-14 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 93.7 / LA 17.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · popup · EV 96.5 / LA 70.02026-04-15 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 80.0 / LA 17.02026-04-15 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 7.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 39.02026-04-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 59.1 / LA -55.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 32.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 75.5 / LA 47.02026-04-17 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 29.02026-04-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 76.8 / LA 29.02026-04-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 7.02026-04-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA -9.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 57.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 82.3 / LA 30.02026-04-19 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 36.02026-04-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 4.02026-04-20 · fielders choice · CU · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA -5.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 58.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.0 / LA 47.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 28.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 19.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 7.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -15.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 55.02026-04-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 25.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 49.02026-04-27 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 53.4 / LA 37.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 32.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 32.02026-04-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.8 / LA -11.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 37.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 11.02026-04-28 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA 9.02026-04-28 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 75.9 / LA 19.02026-04-29 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 94.2 / LA 20.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 79.2 / LA 12.02026-05-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 16.02026-05-02 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA 3.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA -5.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 107.3 / LA 17.02026-05-04 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 87.1 / LA 17.02026-05-04 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 36.02026-05-04 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 21.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 22.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 39.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.7 / LA -1.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 16.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 77.3 / LA 26.02026-05-08 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 50.02026-05-09 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 19.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 41.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 42.02026-05-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA -5.02026-05-11 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 18.02026-05-11 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 80.4 / LA 23.02026-05-12 · sac fly · SI · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 21.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 80.4 / LA 28.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · popup · EV 88.6 / LA 58.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.1 / LA 40.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -2.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 11.02026-05-14 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 33.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA -1.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.2 / LA 3.02026-05-15 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 73.1 / LA 39.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 21.02026-05-16 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 23.02026-05-16 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 2.02026-05-18 · field out · ST · popup · EV 64.3 / LA 66.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 30.02026-05-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 28.02026-05-19 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 36.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 76.5 / LA 38.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 58.02026-05-20 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 82.7 / LA 10.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 20.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 11.02026-05-20 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.9 / LA -14.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 30.02026-05-23 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 7.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 18.02026-05-23 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 83.8 / LA 40.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 33.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 55.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.0 / LA 45.02026-05-26 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 4.02026-05-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 49.02026-05-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 23.02026-05-26 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 13.02026-05-27 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 94.8 / LA 14.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 33.02026-06-01 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 12.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 23.02026-06-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.6 / LA -4.02026-06-04 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 13.02026-06-04 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -5.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Smith, Will · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 69.5 mph Hard swing rate 2% Whiff / swing 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Smith, Will · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 22%22%Whiff: 15%15%Zone contact: 91%91%Contact: 85%85%Hard hit: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.039
wOBA Δ-0.010
Sample212 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances517----
Home Runs19----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3460.296 to 0.389+/- 0.046
ISO0.1780.123 to 0.232+/- 0.054
Barrel%6.8%4.5% to 9.0%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%42.8%37.0% to 51.1%+/- 7.0%
K%20.1%16.4% to 24.5%+/- 4.1%
BB%10.8%8.5% to 14.3%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.2850.257 to 0.333+/- 0.038
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

912 career PA

xwOBA0.299
K%15.4%
BB%11.5%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHP

2433 career PA

xwOBA0.296
K%16.2%
BB%9.2%
Barrel5.5%