Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Melendez, Mj
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team NYM
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
56
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.294 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.272 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.286 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.243
0.263
0.286
0.309
0.329
wOBA
0.260
0.286
0.315
0.344
0.370
ISO
0.126
0.152
0.181
0.210
0.235
K%
24.8%
27.3%
30.0%
32.8%
35.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
62
Exit velocity93.0
95
Hard-hit%55.7%
98
xBA0.271
10
xSLG0.526
54
xwOBA0.272
16
-31 vs proj
BB%9.4%
58
Bat speed72.4
83
K%33.3%
4
-17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
43
Arm Runs1.6 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.3 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · DH
42
SB Success Rate0.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.3% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
72
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
29
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
76
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
30
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
48
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
64
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
53 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.034 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| Sample | 117 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 292 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.245 to 0.365 | +/- 0.060 |
| ISO | 0.203 | 0.115 to 0.274 | +/- 0.080 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 3.3% to 9.1% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.2% | 39.1% to 56.7% | +/- 8.8% |
| K% | 28.1% | 21.6% to 36.5% | +/- 7.4% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 4.6% to 11.9% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.262 | 0.189 to 0.319 | +/- 0.065 |
vs LHP
376 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.217 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
1377 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |