Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Kreidler, Ryan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
45
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.252 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.295 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.276 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.235
0.255
0.276
0.298
0.317
wOBA
0.282
0.298
0.317
0.336
0.353
ISO
0.113
0.132
0.153
0.175
0.194
K%
17.8%
20.2%
22.9%
25.6%
28.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
57
+16 vs proj
Exit velocity87.0
41
Hard-hit%38.5%
51
+20 vs proj
xBA0.295
23
xSLG0.510
54
xwOBA0.295
42
+31 vs proj
BB%7.5%
37
Bat speed70.9
70
K%22.1%
55
+33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
84
Arm Strength96.9 · SS
97
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
47
Range Runs1.2 · SS
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate66.7% · SS
20
Sprint Speed27.8 · SS
59
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7% · rebadged research
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.0% · rebadged research
93
Correct Decisions74.0% · rebadged research
98
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · borderline
91
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
84
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
17
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364 · validated
14
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.383 · validated
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
93
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
100 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.041 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.063 |
| Sample | 281 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 238 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.254 | 0.153 to 0.316 | +/- 0.082 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.054 to 0.225 | +/- 0.085 |
| Barrel% | 4.3% | 0.9% to 6.6% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.1% | 19.5% to 44.8% | +/- 12.6% |
| K% | 28.6% | 16.4% to 38.2% | +/- 10.9% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 3.4% to 12.4% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.271 | 0.178 to 0.341 | +/- 0.081 |
vs LHP
94 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.085 |
| K% | 10.1% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |
vs RHP
199 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.080 |
| K% | 11.2% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |