Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Turang, Brice
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.318 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.375 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.348 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.322
0.335
0.348
0.362
0.374
wOBA
0.348
0.366
0.387
0.408
0.426
ISO
0.132
0.147
0.164
0.180
0.195
K%
19.7%
21.0%
22.5%
24.0%
25.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%16.7%
98
+44 vs proj
Barrel%4.8%
46
+16 vs proj
Bat speed67.9
26
Exit velocity90.4
77
Hard-hit%48.3%
85
+44 vs proj
K%23.4%
40
-16 vs proj
xBA0.380
90
xSLG0.650
84
xwOBA0.375
90
+29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
37
Arm Strength87.1 · 2B
63
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B
71
Range Runs1.2 · 2B
65
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 2B
45
SB Success Rate77.8% · 2B
42
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
86
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.3% · rebadged research
90
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions69.2% · rebadged research
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · borderline
17
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
0
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
40
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
62
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
24
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
20
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
145 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.052 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.064 |
| Sample | 252 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 615 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.323 | 0.294 to 0.361 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.125 | 0.091 to 0.205 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 2.2% to 5.6% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.1% | 33.2% to 45.2% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 20.9% | 16.4% to 25.8% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 9.1% | 6.6% to 12.2% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.275 to 0.364 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
435 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
1429 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 17.5% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |