Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Vientos, Mark
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.326 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.324 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.296
0.309
0.324
0.339
0.353
wOBA
0.259
0.279
0.300
0.322
0.341
ISO
0.140
0.158
0.177
0.196
0.213
K%
20.2%
21.8%
23.5%
25.3%
26.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.9%
7
-23 vs proj
Barrel%8.2%
84
Bat speed71.8
77
Exit velocity90.9
83
Hard-hit%46.1%
76
K%20.8%
58
+24 vs proj
xBA0.326
54
xSLG0.611
77
xwOBA0.326
66
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 1B
6
Range Runs-2.7 · 1B
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
13
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.1% · rebadged research
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.7% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research
51
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
66
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
24
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
33
Resists FastballwOBA 0.301 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
147 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.028 |
| Sample | 207 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 496 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.328 | 0.300 to 0.377 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.185 | 0.140 to 0.267 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 5.2% to 9.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.4% | 42.9% to 55.5% | +/- 6.3% |
| K% | 25.2% | 21.2% to 32.1% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 4.7% to 9.9% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.243 to 0.342 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
415 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.269 |
| K% | 21.5% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |
vs RHP
903 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 23.1% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |