Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Vilade, Ryan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
48
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.280 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.310 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.294 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
xwOBA
0.257
0.275
0.294
0.313
0.330
wOBA
0.352
0.374
0.399
0.424
0.447
ISO
0.142
0.169
0.199
0.229
0.256
K%
16.7%
19.4%
22.4%
25.4%
28.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
34
-34 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
53
Hard-hit%39.3%
51
xBA0.313
39
xSLG0.532
58
xwOBA0.310
54
BB%8.0%
43
+17 vs proj
Bat speed74.6
97
K%20.0%
65
+44 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · RF
64
Arm Strength91.3 · RF
33
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs-3.0 · RF
19
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.5 · RF
82
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
60
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
19
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
11
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.316 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · insufficient sample
8
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
63
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
91 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.097 |
| Sample | 175 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 220 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.302 | 0.187 to 0.296 | +/- 0.054 |
| ISO | 0.177 | 0.055 to 0.248 | +/- 0.096 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 1.3% to 7.0% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.9% | 24.9% to 45.9% | +/- 10.5% |
| K% | 28.5% | 14.8% to 34.4% | +/- 9.8% |
| BB% | 6.6% | 2.5% to 11.6% | +/- 4.6% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.213 to 0.333 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
64 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.067 |
| K% | 7.0% |
| BB% | 2.0% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
69 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.064 |
| K% | 7.5% |
| BB% | 1.5% |
| Barrel | 1.2% |