Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Vilade, Ryan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.280 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.304 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.288 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
xwOBA
0.247
0.266
0.288
0.310
0.329
wOBA
0.368
0.397
0.429
0.461
0.490
ISO
0.111
0.143
0.178
0.214
0.246
K%
14.8%
18.0%
21.6%
25.1%
28.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.3%
69
+44 vs proj
Barrel%1.9%
12
-54 vs proj
Bat speed74.6
96
Exit velocity87.5
38
Hard-hit%35.9%
32
-16 vs proj
K%15.9%
84
+64 vs proj
xBA0.296
28
xSLG0.436
26
xwOBA0.304
44
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength91.3 · RF
38
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Arm Runs0.6 · RF
Limited
Range Runs-0.0 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.7 · RF
88
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
48
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
41
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.302 · insufficient sample
6
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299 · validated thin sample
7
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
72 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.127 |
| Sample | 107 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 220 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.302 | 0.187 to 0.296 | +/- 0.054 |
| ISO | 0.177 | 0.052 to 0.248 | +/- 0.098 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 1.3% to 7.0% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.9% | 24.9% to 45.9% | +/- 10.5% |
| K% | 28.5% | 14.7% to 34.3% | +/- 9.8% |
| BB% | 6.6% | 2.5% to 11.5% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.213 to 0.333 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
64 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.067 |
| K% | 7.0% |
| BB% | 2.0% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
69 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.065 |
| K% | 7.5% |
| BB% | 1.5% |
| Barrel | 1.2% |