Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Rogers, Jake
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team DET
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.303 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.237 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.287 |
| Observed weight | 24% |
xwOBA
0.240
0.262
0.287
0.312
0.334
wOBA
0.175
0.206
0.241
0.275
0.307
ISO
0.096
0.124
0.155
0.186
0.213
K%
23.9%
26.5%
29.4%
32.3%
35.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.1%
67
+32 vs proj
Barrel%4.3%
40
-23 vs proj
Bat speed67.4
23
Exit velocity86.0
23
Hard-hit%30.8%
16
-48 vs proj
K%30.4%
12
xBA0.269
10
xSLG0.438
27
xwOBA0.237
5
-49 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.0 · C
47
Catcher Throwing0.6 · C
64
Framing Runs-0.9 · C
36
Pop Time2.0 · C
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · C
20
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9% · rebadged research
57
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 35.1% · rebadged research
4
Correct Decisions62.1% · rebadged research
15
Mithrandir Stuff+58
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
65
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
31
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
68
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
57
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314 · validated
92
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.337 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
15
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
39 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.076 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.072 |
| Sample | 69 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 320 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.313 | 0.242 to 0.358 | +/- 0.058 |
| ISO | 0.162 | 0.113 to 0.265 | +/- 0.076 |
| Barrel% | 6.1% | 3.2% to 9.1% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.0% | 36.0% to 52.0% | +/- 8.0% |
| K% | 28.9% | 23.3% to 37.1% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.0% to 11.4% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.202 to 0.330 | +/- 0.064 |
vs LHP
340 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |
vs RHP
848 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.219 |
| K% | 22.9% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |