Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.295 vs 0.262 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Gurriel Jr.., Lourdes
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.290 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
xwOBA
0.278
0.292
0.307
0.323
0.337
wOBA
0.209
0.235
0.265
0.294
0.321
ISO
0.100
0.121
0.144
0.166
0.187
K%
14.9%
16.3%
17.8%
19.4%
20.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.8%
39
+21 vs proj
Barrel%4.9%
47
Bat speed68.9
38
Exit velocity87.5
38
Hard-hit%36.0%
32
-17 vs proj
K%18.6%
70
xBA0.292
24
xSLG0.411
17
xwOBA0.290
31
-22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength93.0 · LF
60
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
3
Arm Runs0.5 · LF
Limited
Range Runs-2.9 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · LF
20
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.2% · rebadged research
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8% · rebadged research
73
Correct Decisions61.8% · rebadged research
14
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · borderline
90
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
24
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
40
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
46
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
23
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.313 · validated
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
23
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
75 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.048 |
| Sample | 102 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 542 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.313 | 0.295 to 0.362 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.121 to 0.243 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 3.6% to 7.5% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.0% | 36.4% to 47.3% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 16.7% | 14.5% to 21.8% | +/- 3.6% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.0% to 8.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.254 to 0.329 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
1057 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.295 |
| K% | 12.0% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
2719 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.262 |
| K% | 14.9% |
| BB% | 4.2% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |