Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.295 vs 0.262 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Gurriel Jr.., Lourdes
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
25
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.278 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.298 |
| Observed weight | 46% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.284
0.298
0.312
0.325
wOBA
0.216
0.236
0.257
0.279
0.298
ISO
0.097
0.114
0.133
0.151
0.168
K%
15.0%
16.3%
17.6%
19.0%
20.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
24
-24 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
41
Hard-hit%34.3%
29
-25 vs proj
xBA0.293
23
xSLG0.396
12
xwOBA0.278
21
-35 vs proj
BB%5.4%
16
Bat speed68.6
36
K%17.8%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · LF
83
Arm Strength93.6 · LF
56
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
6
Range Runs-2.7 · LF
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · LF
20
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0% · rebadged research
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6% · rebadged research
73
Correct Decisions62.2% · rebadged research
17
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · borderline
97
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
56
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.332 · validated
94
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
99 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.035 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.055 |
| Sample | 185 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 542 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.313 | 0.295 to 0.362 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.121 to 0.243 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 3.6% to 7.5% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.0% | 36.4% to 47.3% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 16.7% | 14.5% to 21.8% | +/- 3.6% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.0% to 8.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.254 to 0.329 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
1057 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.295 |
| K% | 12.0% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
2719 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.262 |
| K% | 14.9% |
| BB% | 4.2% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |