Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Naylor, Bo
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
60
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.293 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.263
0.277
0.293
0.309
0.323
wOBA
0.217
0.242
0.270
0.298
0.323
ISO
0.103
0.125
0.149
0.173
0.194
K%
21.2%
23.1%
25.1%
27.2%
29.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
80
+26 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
78
Hard-hit%43.6%
76
+22 vs proj
xBA0.296
24
xSLG0.548
65
xwOBA0.293
39
BB%7.8%
41
-20 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
62
K%25.0%
38
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.0 · C
55
Catcher Throwing-1.0 · C
26
Framing Runs-0.0 · C
51
Pop Time1.9 · C
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.4 · C
48
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.2% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
56
Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · borderline
95
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.295 · validated
98
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
43
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
75
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
78 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.020 |
| Sample | 116 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 465 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.261 to 0.332 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.150 | 0.109 to 0.242 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.1% | 3.4% to 7.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.0% | 33.8% to 47.4% | +/- 6.8% |
| K% | 25.5% | 20.9% to 31.4% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 7.0% to 12.8% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.263 | 0.208 to 0.310 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
248 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.208 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
876 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 8.6% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |