Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
Naylor, Bo
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CLE
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.296 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.296 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.296 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
xwOBA
0.265
0.280
0.296
0.312
0.327
wOBA
0.200
0.226
0.254
0.282
0.308
ISO
0.097
0.119
0.143
0.168
0.190
K%
20.8%
22.7%
24.8%
26.9%
28.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.4%
34
-25 vs proj
Barrel%6.5%
69
+19 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
60
Exit velocity90.5
78
Hard-hit%45.8%
76
+29 vs proj
K%24.1%
38
xBA0.295
26
xSLG0.547
61
xwOBA0.296
37
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
40
Catcher Throwing-0.7 · C
16
Framing Runs0.2 · C
48
Pop Time2.0 · C
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · C
50
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.8% · rebadged research
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research
65
Correct Decisions69.7% · rebadged research
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.257 · borderline
94
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285 · validated thin sample
27
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
91
Resists FastballwOBA 0.298 · validated
98
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
74 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.040 |
| Sample | 108 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 465 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.263 to 0.336 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.152 | 0.110 to 0.245 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.1% | 3.4% to 7.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.0% | 33.8% to 47.4% | +/- 6.8% |
| K% | 25.5% | 20.9% to 31.4% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 7.0% to 12.8% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.268 | 0.212 to 0.316 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
248 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.208 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
876 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 8.6% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |