Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.237 vs 0.206 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Benson, Will
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team CIN
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.294 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.314 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.301 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.267
0.283
0.301
0.318
0.334
wOBA
0.300
0.327
0.357
0.386
0.413
ISO
0.124
0.148
0.175
0.201
0.225
K%
25.3%
27.5%
30.0%
32.5%
34.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%14.3%
94
+35 vs proj
Barrel%5.9%
61
Bat speed71.6
76
Exit velocity90.7
81
Hard-hit%42.2%
60
K%27.7%
23
+15 vs proj
xBA0.320
45
xSLG0.610
77
xwOBA0.314
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.0 · RF
4
Arm Strength88.6 · RF
19
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Range Runs0.7 · RF
65
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts5.0 · RF
56
Sprint Speed28.5 · RF
83
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.4% · rebadged research
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.7% · rebadged research
90
Correct Decisions74.1% · rebadged research
96
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · borderline
90
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
77
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
48
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361 · validated
16
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
16
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline114
97
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
66 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 119 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 369 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.271 to 0.355 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.181 | 0.115 to 0.264 | +/- 0.074 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 4.1% to 9.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.2% | 37.2% to 52.5% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 31.8% | 26.0% to 39.5% | +/- 6.7% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 6.4% to 12.0% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.300 | 0.216 to 0.366 | +/- 0.075 |
vs LHP
170 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.206 |
| K% | 23.1% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
936 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.237 |
| K% | 25.8% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |