Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.268 vs 0.233 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Moniak, Mickey
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
65
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.321 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.312 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.316 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.291
0.303
0.316
0.329
0.341
wOBA
0.350
0.369
0.390
0.411
0.430
ISO
0.197
0.215
0.234
0.254
0.272
K%
23.4%
25.0%
26.7%
28.4%
30.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
85
Exit velocity89.2
64
Hard-hit%41.2%
61
xBA0.317
44
xSLG0.617
80
xwOBA0.312
55
BB%5.4%
16
Bat speed72.7
85
K%27.3%
24
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · LF
61
Arm Strength86.7 · LF
7
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs-1.2 · LF
34
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · LF
62
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
73
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.9% · rebadged research
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.5% · rebadged research
87
Correct Decisions64.0% · rebadged research
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.340 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
71
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · insufficient sample
10
Resists FastballwOBA 0.374 · validated
8
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
23
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
130 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.015 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.063 |
| Sample | 242 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 485 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.327 | 0.291 to 0.354 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.189 | 0.142 to 0.276 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 4.9% to 9.2% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.4% | 34.9% to 47.2% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 24.8% | 21.5% to 32.7% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 5.2% | 3.4% to 7.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.267 to 0.361 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
213 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 24.2% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
vs RHP
1262 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 22.1% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |