Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.268 vs 0.233 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Moniak, Mickey
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.321 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.324 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.296
0.308
0.322
0.336
0.349
wOBA
0.364
0.386
0.411
0.435
0.458
ISO
0.195
0.215
0.237
0.259
0.279
K%
22.8%
24.5%
26.4%
28.3%
30.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.6%
16
Barrel%8.4%
85
Bat speed72.4
84
Exit velocity89.2
57
Hard-hit%39.8%
48
K%26.8%
27
xBA0.311
37
xSLG0.641
83
xwOBA0.324
62
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · LF
81
Arm Strength86.7 · LF
10
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs-0.2 · LF
48
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · LF
56
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
69
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.4% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.7% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.330 · borderline
3
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
70
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.355 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358 · validated
19
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
20
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
118 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.083 |
| Sample | 179 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 485 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.327 | 0.291 to 0.354 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.189 | 0.142 to 0.276 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 4.9% to 9.2% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.4% | 34.9% to 47.2% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 24.8% | 21.5% to 32.7% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 5.2% | 3.4% to 7.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.267 to 0.361 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
213 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 24.2% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
vs RHP
1262 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 22.1% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |