Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.268 vs 0.233 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Moniak, Mickey
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
55
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.321 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.278 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.292 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.281
0.292
0.303
0.313
wOBA
0.304
0.317
0.332
0.347
0.361
ISO
0.192
0.205
0.220
0.235
0.248
K%
25.0%
26.2%
27.6%
29.0%
30.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
71
Exit velocity89.5
72
Hard-hit%40.9%
62
xBA0.301
32
xSLG0.552
67
xwOBA0.278
24
-50 vs proj
BB%4.9%
13
Bat speed72.8
88
K%28.3%
22
-17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · LF
58
Arm Strength87.9 · LF
10
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs0.0 · LF
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · LF
65
Bolts1.0 · LF
11
Sprint Speed28.1 · LF
68
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 51.9% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions62.0% · rebadged research
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline
7
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample
22
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
59
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
24
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
80
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
206 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.050 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.005 |
| Sample | 448 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 485 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.327 | 0.291 to 0.354 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.189 | 0.142 to 0.276 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 4.9% to 9.2% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.4% | 35.0% to 47.2% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 24.8% | 21.5% to 32.7% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 5.2% | 3.4% to 7.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.267 to 0.361 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
213 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 24.2% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
vs RHP
1262 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 22.1% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |