Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026
Chaparro, Andrés
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team WSH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
66
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.371 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.318 |
| Observed weight | 20% |
xwOBA
0.255
0.285
0.318
0.351
0.381
wOBA
0.289
0.329
0.373
0.417
0.457
ISO
0.085
0.117
0.152
0.187
0.219
K%
13.3%
16.0%
19.1%
22.2%
24.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
28
-18 vs proj
Exit velocity91.9
90
Hard-hit%47.1%
82
+47 vs proj
xBA0.318
45
xSLG0.542
59
xwOBA0.371
91
+36 vs proj
BB%18.2%
99
+68 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
80
K%20.0%
62
+24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
70
Range Runs0.5 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.0 · 1B
6
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4% · rebadged research
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.7% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions63.9% · rebadged research
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
46
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
53
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
43
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
45
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
59
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
28 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.056 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.059 |
| Sample | 55 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 250 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.220 to 0.371 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.162 | 0.070 to 0.236 | +/- 0.083 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 1.3% to 7.9% | +/- 3.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 26.0% to 45.1% | +/- 9.5% |
| K% | 23.8% | 15.6% to 29.7% | +/- 7.1% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 2.7% to 9.2% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.218 to 0.348 | +/- 0.065 |
vs LHP
99 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.129 |
| K% | 9.7% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
130 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.115 |
| K% | 9.3% |
| BB% | 2.3% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |