Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026
Chaparro, Andrés
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team WSH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
75
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.336 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.321 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.300
0.321
0.343
0.363
wOBA
0.353
0.372
0.393
0.414
0.433
ISO
0.156
0.176
0.199
0.222
0.242
K%
17.5%
19.3%
21.3%
23.3%
25.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.4%
84
+36 vs proj
Exit velocity90.2
80
Hard-hit%44.4%
78
+37 vs proj
xBA0.313
44
xSLG0.594
78
xwOBA0.336
83
+21 vs proj
BB%11.1%
82
+48 vs proj
Bat speed71.8
77
K%23.5%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength80.7 · 1B
6
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-2.3 · 1B
30
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.0 · 1B
5
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.1% · rebadged research
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
38
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · borderline
20
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
13
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
47
Resists FastballwOBA 0.389 · validated
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
100 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.079 |
| Sample | 243 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 250 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.220 to 0.371 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.162 | 0.070 to 0.236 | +/- 0.083 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 1.3% to 7.9% | +/- 3.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 26.0% to 45.1% | +/- 9.5% |
| K% | 23.8% | 15.6% to 29.7% | +/- 7.1% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 2.7% to 9.2% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.218 to 0.348 | +/- 0.065 |
vs LHP
99 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.129 |
| K% | 9.7% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
130 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.115 |
| K% | 9.3% |
| BB% | 2.3% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |