Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.284 vs 0.242 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Chisholm Jr.., Jazz
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYY
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
52
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.326 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.292 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.304 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.279
0.291
0.304
0.317
0.329
wOBA
0.295
0.309
0.325
0.342
0.356
ISO
0.146
0.159
0.173
0.188
0.201
K%
25.4%
26.6%
28.0%
29.3%
30.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
49
-34 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
68
Hard-hit%40.9%
58
xBA0.315
42
xSLG0.544
62
xwOBA0.292
34
-34 vs proj
BB%10.6%
73
Bat speed70.9
70
K%28.8%
20
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
44
Arm Strength83.6 · 2B
30
Outs Above Avg8.0 · 2B
96
Range Runs5.8 · 2B
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.0 · 2B
97
Bolts5.0 · 2B
56
SB Success Rate88.0% · 2B
72
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
79
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2% · rebadged research
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7% · rebadged research
19
Correct Decisions65.6% · rebadged research
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.244 · insufficient sample
100
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
46
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306 · validated
95
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
14
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
163 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.034 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.000 |
| Sample | 379 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 558 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.326 | 0.276 to 0.362 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.183 | 0.143 to 0.266 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 7.5% | 5.1% to 9.5% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.1% | 36.5% to 49.8% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 27.3% | 22.4% to 31.8% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 6.9% to 12.2% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.239 to 0.339 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
712 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
1852 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.284 |
| K% | 22.9% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 7.6% |