Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
Rivero, Sebastián
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team LAA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.251 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.207 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.242 |
| Observed weight | 22% |
xwOBA
0.162
0.200
0.242
0.284
0.321
wOBA
0.211
0.247
0.286
0.325
0.360
ISO
0.002
0.037
0.075
0.113
0.147
K%
15.4%
20.1%
25.3%
30.5%
35.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.6%
25
Barrel%1.6%
9
-16 vs proj
Bat speed69.0
40
Exit velocity82.7
6
Hard-hit%21.4%
4
K%21.3%
54
+23 vs proj
xBA0.243
4
xSLG0.288
1
xwOBA0.207
2
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.5 · C
74
Catcher Throwing-0.4 · C
26
Framing Runs1.0 · C
64
Pop Time1.9 · C
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
13
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0% · rebadged research
4
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
72
Correct Decisions61.6% · rebadged research
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline
69
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
61
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
63
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
50
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
81
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
10
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
37 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.059 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.020 |
| Sample | 61 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 217 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.266 | 0.091 to 0.291 | +/- 0.100 |
| ISO | 0.109 | 0.014 to 0.199 | +/- 0.092 |
| Barrel% | 3.3% | 0.3% to 5.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 29.7% | 11.9% to 37.4% | +/- 12.7% |
| K% | 25.7% | 11.6% to 36.6% | +/- 12.5% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 0.9% to 8.6% | +/- 3.8% |
| BABIP | 0.282 | 0.156 to 0.342 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
27 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.027 |
| K% | 4.2% |
| BB% | 0.5% |
| Barrel | 0.7% |
vs RHP
95 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.025 |
| K% | 4.7% |
| BB% | 0.4% |
| Barrel | 0.7% |