Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Sullivan, Brett
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team COL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
13
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.243 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.275 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
xwOBA
0.220
0.246
0.275
0.304
0.329
wOBA
0.262
0.289
0.320
0.351
0.378
ISO
0.070
0.104
0.141
0.179
0.213
K%
15.9%
18.8%
22.1%
25.3%
28.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
12
Exit velocity86.2
25
Hard-hit%30.8%
17
xBA0.269
10
xSLG0.368
7
xwOBA0.243
5
BB%3.8%
7
Bat speed64.1
4
K%21.0%
56
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
35
Catcher Throwing-0.6 · C
20
Framing Runs-1.9 · C
22
Pop Time2.0 · C
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.0 · C
69
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.8% · rebadged research
14
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
30
Changeup Stuff+78
0
Correct Decisions61.3% · rebadged research
12
Mithrandir Stuff+71
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
94
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
84
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.381 · validated
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Slider Stuff+76
0
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
72 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.021 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.056 |
| Sample | 105 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 210 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.264 | 0.172 to 0.325 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.047 to 0.254 | +/- 0.104 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.4% to 6.6% | +/- 3.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.5% | 17.1% to 43.3% | +/- 13.1% |
| K% | 20.3% | 10.9% to 28.5% | +/- 8.8% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 1.7% to 10.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.168 to 0.349 | +/- 0.090 |
vs LHP
34 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.071 |
| K% | 6.1% |
| BB% | 1.2% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |
vs RHP
133 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.077 |
| K% | 5.5% |
| BB% | 1.3% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |