Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Isbel, Kyle
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team KC
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.281 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.286 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
xwOBA
0.261
0.273
0.286
0.298
0.310
wOBA
0.321
0.343
0.368
0.392
0.415
ISO
0.117
0.133
0.151
0.169
0.185
K%
17.2%
18.7%
20.3%
21.9%
23.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.8%
18
Barrel%2.3%
17
Bat speed66.6
18
Exit velocity84.4
11
Hard-hit%36.1%
33
K%21.4%
53
xBA0.322
49
xSLG0.450
31
xwOBA0.281
24
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · CF
15
Arm Strength87.5 · CF
16
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
96
Range Runs3.0 · CF
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · CF
91
Sprint Speed27.4 · CF
53
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.8% · rebadged research
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.3% · rebadged research
21
Correct Decisions63.7% · rebadged research
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
29
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · insufficient sample
20
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
51
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369 · validated
10
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.324 · validated
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
29
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
117 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.083 |
| Sample | 173 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 458 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.285 | 0.263 to 0.316 | +/- 0.026 |
| ISO | 0.132 | 0.108 to 0.217 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% | 3.0% | 1.5% to 5.2% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.3% | 31.5% to 46.5% | +/- 7.5% |
| K% | 19.3% | 16.4% to 25.2% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 4.6% to 9.1% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.253 to 0.349 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
302 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.198 |
| K% | 20.1% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |
vs RHP
1345 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.221 |
| K% | 14.8% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |