Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Happ, Ian
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team CHC
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.335 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.343 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.340 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.310
0.324
0.340
0.355
0.369
wOBA
0.361
0.379
0.399
0.419
0.437
ISO
0.178
0.194
0.213
0.231
0.248
K%
25.0%
26.4%
28.0%
29.6%
31.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%15.6%
95
+16 vs proj
Barrel%8.5%
86
+20 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
61
Exit velocity90.1
71
Hard-hit%45.1%
71
K%30.7%
11
-24 vs proj
xBA0.337
63
xSLG0.740
94
xwOBA0.343
77
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.3 · LF
97
Arm Strength89.8 · LF
24
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
20
Range Runs-0.7 · LF
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · LF
22
Sprint Speed27.6 · LF
58
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.9% · rebadged research
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
33
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
65
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · borderline
10
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
40
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
62
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.363 · insufficient sample
6
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
55
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
22
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
131 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.000 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.056 |
| Sample | 270 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 620 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 21 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.343 | 0.294 to 0.390 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.177 | 0.126 to 0.259 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 4.4% to 8.6% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.9% | 38.5% to 51.6% | +/- 6.6% |
| K% | 24.6% | 19.1% to 29.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 11.8% | 9.8% to 15.2% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.288 | 0.245 to 0.339 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
1177 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.286 |
| K% | 20.6% |
| BB% | 9.0% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
3449 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.303 |
| K% | 20.8% |
| BB% | 11.9% |
| Barrel | 5.7% |