Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Happ, Ian
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team CHC
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
70
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.335 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.319 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.325 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.299
0.311
0.325
0.338
0.350
wOBA
0.333
0.348
0.364
0.380
0.394
ISO
0.173
0.186
0.201
0.216
0.230
K%
26.1%
27.3%
28.6%
30.0%
31.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.0%
78
Exit velocity89.5
67
Hard-hit%43.4%
68
xBA0.324
53
xSLG0.653
88
xwOBA0.319
64
-17 vs proj
BB%13.2%
89
Bat speed70.7
67
K%30.8%
14
-25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.7 · LF
97
Arm Strength90.1 · LF
22
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Range Runs-0.5 · LF
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · LF
24
Sprint Speed27.8 · LF
61
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.326 · borderline
3
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample
17
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.370 · insufficient sample
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
64
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
22
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
151 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| Sample | 416 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 620 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 21 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.343 | 0.294 to 0.390 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.177 | 0.126 to 0.259 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 4.4% to 8.6% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.9% | 38.5% to 51.6% | +/- 6.6% |
| K% | 24.6% | 19.1% to 29.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 11.8% | 9.8% to 15.2% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.288 | 0.245 to 0.339 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
1177 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.286 |
| K% | 20.6% |
| BB% | 9.0% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
3449 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.303 |
| K% | 20.8% |
| BB% | 11.9% |
| Barrel | 5.7% |