Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Vierling, Matt
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team DET
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
36
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.296 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.300 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.298 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.267
0.282
0.298
0.315
0.329
wOBA
0.258
0.275
0.293
0.312
0.328
ISO
0.110
0.127
0.147
0.166
0.184
K%
15.8%
17.3%
18.8%
20.4%
21.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
32
-15 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
41
Hard-hit%36.2%
35
-33 vs proj
xBA0.306
31
xSLG0.458
30
xwOBA0.300
43
BB%7.1%
32
Bat speed69.8
52
K%16.4%
82
+33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · CF
21
Arm Strength87.2 · CF
10
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
11
Range Runs1.7 · CF
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · CF
45
Bolts1.0 · CF
15
Sprint Speed28.4 · CF
79
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.4% · rebadged research
15
Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
80
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
32
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.350 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306 · validated
95
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.323 · validated
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
143 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.020 |
| Sample | 281 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 313 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.265 to 0.374 | +/- 0.054 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.085 to 0.238 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 2.5% to 8.2% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.5% | 35.3% to 51.5% | +/- 8.1% |
| K% | 22.3% | 17.8% to 29.3% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 4.8% to 10.7% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.302 | 0.243 to 0.359 | +/- 0.058 |
vs LHP
576 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.263 |
| K% | 16.0% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |
vs RHP
1201 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.241 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |