Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / DET · 2026

Vierling, Matt

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.314 xwOBA
Range
0.265 to 0.374
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Impact slugger Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.296
xwOBA current pace0.310
xwOBA rolling p500.302
Observed weight46%
xwOBA
0.267 0.284 0.302 0.321 0.338
wOBA
0.275 0.296 0.319 0.342 0.362
ISO
0.110 0.130 0.153 0.177 0.197
K%
16.3% 18.0% 19.8% 21.7% 23.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
51 +18 vs proj
Barrel%4.2%
38
Bat speed69.8
51
Exit velocity87.1
33
Hard-hit%35.5%
30 -36 vs proj
K%17.4%
78 +31 vs proj
xBA0.315
40
xSLG0.475
39
xwOBA0.310
51
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.6 · CF
9
Arm Strength87.2 · CF
15
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
8
Range Runs0.5 · CF
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · CF
27
Bolts1.0 · CF
17
Sprint Speed28.3 · CF
78
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.1% · rebadged research
16
Correct Decisions66.1% · rebadged research
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · borderline
19
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
86
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
92
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.326 · validated
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Vierling, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3232026-05-19: 0.3232026-05-21: 0.3282026-05-23: 0.3192026-05-24: 0.3192026-05-25: 0.3242026-05-26: 0.3242026-05-28: 0.3212026-05-29: 0.3212026-05-30: 0.3152026-05-31: 0.3132026-06-01: 0.310 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Matt Vierling's tools (89) outpace production (81) by 9 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Passive In-Zone Approach. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too Low
+8.3° Current 8° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

131 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Vierling, Matt · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 73% of plotted batted ballsCenter 73%Right field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsOppo 13% LF 345 CF 420 RF 330 2026-03-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.3 / LA 63.02026-03-15 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 88.2 / LA 22.02026-03-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 74.2 / LA 45.02026-03-15 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 31.02026-03-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.5 / LA -14.02026-03-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 68.1 / LA -3.02026-03-18 · field error · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 30.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 76.1 / LA 29.02026-03-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 22.02026-03-20 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 4.02026-03-21 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 36.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 36.02026-03-24 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 16.02026-03-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 33.02026-03-27 · field out · CH · popup · EV 73.3 / LA 62.02026-03-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 67.9 / LA -51.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 55.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 19.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 51.02026-04-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -12.02026-04-04 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.8 / LA 33.02026-04-04 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -20.02026-04-04 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 26.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 21.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 63.6 / LA 43.02026-04-06 · field out · KC · popup · EV 74.4 / LA 64.02026-04-06 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 12.02026-04-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 40.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 64.2 / LA -55.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 71.8 / LA 10.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 65.0 / LA -27.02026-04-14 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 71.8 / LA -52.02026-04-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.7 / LA 14.02026-04-16 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 15.02026-04-16 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.1 / LA -7.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 2.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -4.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 77.5 / LA 11.02026-04-19 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 15.02026-04-19 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 6.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA -5.02026-04-19 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 15.02026-04-19 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA -37.02026-04-20 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 11.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 34.02026-04-21 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.3 / LA -3.02026-04-21 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 71.9 / LA 12.02026-04-21 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 16.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.7 / LA 34.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · popup · EV 86.5 / LA 75.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · ground_ball2026-04-24 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 16.02026-04-24 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 1.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 90.3 / LA 26.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA -19.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 24.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 92.3 / LA 26.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 21.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 79.2 / LA 74.02026-04-26 · sac fly · CU · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 39.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -18.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 49.6 / LA -73.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -43.02026-04-30 · double · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA -21.02026-04-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 24.02026-04-30 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 71.2 / LA 27.02026-04-30 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 6.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 35.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.4 / LA 56.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 79.8 / LA 61.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 4.02026-05-03 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 73.3 / LA 35.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 3.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 32.02026-05-04 · fielders choice · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 5.02026-05-05 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 39.02026-05-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 55.02026-05-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 4.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 0.02026-05-06 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 89.2 / LA 17.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · popup · EV 65.1 / LA 37.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 23.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.5 / LA -10.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 27.02026-05-08 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -2.02026-05-08 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 93.8 / LA 14.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 60.9 / LA 5.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA 10.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA -18.02026-05-10 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 20.02026-05-10 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 28.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -3.02026-05-12 · field out · ST · popup · EV 71.3 / LA 21.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 38.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 45.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 64.1 / LA -33.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 51.9 / LA 28.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 28.02026-05-15 · field out · FS · popup · EV 69.5 / LA 71.02026-05-15 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 71.0 / LA 41.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 32.02026-05-16 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 25.02026-05-16 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 6.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 4.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 52.0 / LA -62.02026-05-17 · field out · FS · popup · EV 76.3 / LA 76.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · popup · EV 73.2 / LA 69.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 78.2 / LA 25.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 19.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -21.02026-05-18 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 25.02026-05-19 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 50.02026-05-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 3.02026-05-20 · sac fly · FC · line_drive · EV 91.1 / LA 21.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 104.2 / LA 15.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 56.02026-05-21 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA -27.02026-05-24 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 66.7 / LA 43.02026-05-24 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 94.6 / LA 17.02026-05-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -2.02026-05-24 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 76.9 / LA 16.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 79.2 / LA 70.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 68.4 / LA 83.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 24.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.2 / LA -30.02026-05-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -11.02026-05-26 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 71.4 / LA 26.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 40.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 87.4 / LA 66.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 90.2 / LA 20.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.9 / LA 60.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Vierling, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 51%51%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 15%15%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 85%85%Hard hit: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.003
wOBA Δ+0.005
Sample190 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances313----
Home Runs8----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3140.265 to 0.374+/- 0.054
ISO0.1570.085 to 0.238+/- 0.077
Barrel%5.0%2.5% to 8.2%+/- 2.8%
Hard-Hit%43.5%35.3% to 51.5%+/- 8.1%
K%22.3%17.8% to 29.3%+/- 5.7%
BB%7.3%4.8% to 10.7%+/- 3.0%
BABIP0.3020.243 to 0.359+/- 0.058
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

576 career PA

xwOBA0.263
K%16.0%
BB%7.2%
Barrel4.2%
vs RHP

1201 career PA

xwOBA0.241
K%17.8%
BB%5.7%
Barrel3.4%