Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Fortes, Nick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.286 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.270 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.279 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.243
0.260
0.279
0.298
0.315
wOBA
0.250
0.272
0.297
0.322
0.344
ISO
0.078
0.100
0.124
0.149
0.170
K%
12.1%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
19.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.2%
5
Barrel%2.6%
20
Bat speed70.1
57
Exit velocity87.2
34
Hard-hit%44.4%
69
+47 vs proj
K%12.9%
92
+24 vs proj
xBA0.291
23
xSLG0.375
10
xwOBA0.270
15
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.5 · C
29
Catcher Throwing0.1 · C
40
Framing Runs0.8 · C
60
Pop Time1.9 · C
62
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · C
25
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.9% · rebadged research
19
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
40
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · borderline
95
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
48
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
66
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
49
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
27
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
17
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
119 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| Sample | 155 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 365 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.276 | 0.241 to 0.347 | +/- 0.053 |
| ISO | 0.127 | 0.074 to 0.225 | +/- 0.076 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 1.2% to 5.4% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.4% | 27.8% to 46.7% | +/- 9.4% |
| K% | 18.9% | 14.5% to 26.8% | +/- 6.2% |
| BB% | 5.3% | 3.7% to 9.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.272 | 0.220 to 0.321 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
392 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.197 |
| K% | 11.8% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
834 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.192 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |