Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Fortes, Nick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
20
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.286 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.270 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.278 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.246
0.261
0.278
0.294
0.310
wOBA
0.272
0.290
0.311
0.331
0.349
ISO
0.083
0.101
0.122
0.142
0.160
K%
11.6%
13.2%
14.9%
16.7%
18.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.6%
16
Exit velocity85.3
21
Hard-hit%38.7%
48
+25 vs proj
xBA0.275
11
xSLG0.369
7
xwOBA0.270
16
BB%3.0%
4
Bat speed69.8
51
K%11.9%
96
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
35
Catcher Throwing-0.1 · C
49
Framing Runs-0.7 · C
36
Pop Time1.9 · C
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · C
20
Sprint Speed26.9 · C
37
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.6% · rebadged research
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.8% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions62.9% · rebadged research
20
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.253 · borderline
97
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
32
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
68
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
66
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
39
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline92
14
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
144 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.035 |
| Sample | 235 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 365 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.276 | 0.241 to 0.347 | +/- 0.053 |
| ISO | 0.127 | 0.074 to 0.225 | +/- 0.076 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 1.2% to 5.4% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.4% | 27.8% to 46.7% | +/- 9.4% |
| K% | 18.9% | 14.5% to 26.8% | +/- 6.2% |
| BB% | 5.3% | 3.7% to 9.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.272 | 0.220 to 0.321 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
392 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.197 |
| K% | 11.8% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
834 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.192 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |