Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.299 vs 0.260 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Mountcastle, Ryan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status IL-60
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.301 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.317 |
| Observed weight | 12% |
xwOBA
0.283
0.299
0.317
0.335
0.352
wOBA
0.498
0.551
0.610
0.669
0.722
ISO
0.079
0.103
0.130
0.157
0.181
K%
21.4%
23.3%
25.5%
27.7%
29.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B · small sample regression applied
58
Regression applied
Range Runs0.1 · 1B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.2 · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 53.6% · rebadged research
7
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
51
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
63
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
30
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
52
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
21 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 439 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.315 | 0.292 to 0.365 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.136 | 0.106 to 0.222 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 4.5% to 8.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.4% | 39.2% to 51.1% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 23.7% | 20.5% to 29.5% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 5.3% | 4.2% to 8.4% | +/- 2.1% |
| BABIP | 0.312 | 0.275 to 0.360 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
846 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.299 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |
vs RHP
1969 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 5.7% |