Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / TB · 2026

Madrigal, Nick

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.279 xwOBA
Range
0.236 to 0.352
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 29 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
18
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
33
Defense2 metrics
44
Speed1 metrics
35
Plate skills10 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.304
xwOBA current pace0.293
xwOBA rolling p500.301
Observed weight22%
xwOBA
0.253 0.276 0.301 0.327 0.349
wOBA
0.253 0.289 0.329 0.368 0.404
ISO
0.015 0.052 0.093 0.134 0.171
K%
7.0% 9.5% 12.2% 14.9% 17.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
1
Exit velocity88.1
51
Hard-hit%26.9%
10
xBA0.252
4
xSLG0.308
2
xwOBA0.293
38
BB%11.1%
82 +66 vs proj
Bat speed64.9
6
K%4.8%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength81.2 · 2B
7
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
80
Range Runs1.3 · 2B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · 2B
35
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1% · rebadged research
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.9% · rebadged research
10
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
36
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
54
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
39
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
63
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345 · validated
37
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
52
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Madrigal, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.293 2026-09-12: 0.2842026-09-13: 0.2872026-09-14: 0.2902026-09-18: 0.2932026-09-19: 0.2932026-09-20: 0.2932026-09-21: 0.2932026-09-22: 0.2932026-09-23: 0.2932026-09-24: 0.2932026-09-25: 0.2932026-09-26: 0.293 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

20 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Madrigal, Nick · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsPull 20%Center field third: 75% of plotted batted ballsCenter 75%Right field third: 5% of plotted batted ballsOppo 5% LF 347 CF 396 RF 350 2026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 37.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 44.02026-06-01 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 21.02026-06-01 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -2.02026-06-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -18.02026-06-05 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 20.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA -13.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 39.02026-06-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -19.02026-06-18 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 84.5 / LA -14.02026-06-18 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 34.02026-06-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA 8.02026-09-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.0 / LA -13.02026-09-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 56.7 / LA -7.02026-09-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 67.9 / LA -15.02026-09-12 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 28.02026-09-13 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA -10.02026-09-13 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 89.3 / LA 9.02026-09-13 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 2.02026-09-13 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.1 / LA -7.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Madrigal, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 52%52%Chase: 30%30%Whiff: 7%7%Zone contact: 96%96%Contact: 93%93%Hard hit: 27%27% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.014
wOBA Δ+0.050
Sample63 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances210----
Home Runs4----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2790.236 to 0.352+/- 0.058
ISO0.1010.023 to 0.223+/- 0.100
Barrel%1.3%0.2% to 3.9%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%23.8%19.5% to 41.6%+/- 11.0%
K%12.7%10.6% to 23.8%+/- 6.6%
BB%5.2%2.3% to 9.4%+/- 3.6%
BABIP0.2860.205 to 0.369+/- 0.082
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

311 career PA

xwOBA0.154
K%5.0%
BB%2.1%
Barrel0.4%
vs RHP

721 career PA

xwOBA0.153
K%4.9%
BB%2.1%
Barrel0.3%