Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026

Madrigal, Nick

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.279 xwOBA
Range
0.236 to 0.353
Live Δ
--
Team LAA Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
xwOBA preseason0.304
xwOBA current pace0.294
xwOBA rolling p500.303
Observed weight4%
xwOBA
0.247 0.274 0.303 0.333 0.360
wOBA
0.148 0.239 0.340 0.441 0.532
ISO
0.009 0.054 0.104 0.154 0.200
K%
7.8% 10.8% 14.2% 17.5% 20.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Defense · percentile strip
Range Runs0.2 · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-02
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5% · rebadged research
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 44.4% · rebadged research
1
Correct Decisions53.3% · rebadged research
3
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
53
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
54
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
48
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline83
4
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

5 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Player 663611 · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 40% of plotted batted ballsPull 40%Center field third: 60% of plotted batted ballsCenter 60%Right field third: 0% of plotted batted ballsOppo 0% LF 347 CF 396 RF 350 2026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 37.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 44.02026-06-01 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 21.02026-06-01 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -2.02026-06-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -18.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Player 663611 · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 63%63%Chase: 20%20%Whiff: 7%7%Zone contact: 92%92%Contact: 93%93%Hard hit: 25%25% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances210----
Home Runs4----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2790.236 to 0.353+/- 0.058
ISO0.1010.023 to 0.223+/- 0.100
Barrel%1.3%0.2% to 3.9%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%23.8%19.5% to 41.6%+/- 11.0%
K%12.7%10.6% to 23.8%+/- 6.6%
BB%5.2%2.3% to 9.4%+/- 3.6%
BABIP0.2860.205 to 0.369+/- 0.082
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

311 career PA

xwOBA0.154
K%5.0%
BB%2.1%
Barrel0.4%
vs RHP

721 career PA

xwOBA0.153
K%4.9%
BB%2.1%
Barrel0.3%