Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Lockridge, Brandon
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.266 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.277 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.270 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.223
0.245
0.270
0.294
0.316
wOBA
0.364
0.392
0.423
0.454
0.482
ISO
0.033
0.061
0.093
0.124
0.152
K%
17.3%
19.8%
22.6%
25.5%
28.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.7%
46
+27 vs proj
Barrel%1.7%
11
Bat speed69.4
45
Exit velocity83.8
8
Hard-hit%38.9%
46
+28 vs proj
K%25.2%
34
-17 vs proj
xBA0.333
60
xSLG0.405
16
xwOBA0.277
20
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · LF
27
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
46
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Range Runs-0.2 · LF
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts7.0 · LF
67
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
93
Sprint Speed29.2 · LF
94
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.2% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research
74
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
20
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265 · validated thin sample
81
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
36
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated
91
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
74 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.145 |
| Sample | 115 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 287 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.278 | 0.192 to 0.323 | +/- 0.066 |
| ISO | 0.095 | 0.031 to 0.209 | +/- 0.089 |
| Barrel% | 2.6% | 0.5% to 6.0% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.6% | 20.2% to 44.9% | +/- 12.3% |
| K% | 21.6% | 17.0% to 32.5% | +/- 7.7% |
| BB% | 5.9% | 1.5% to 8.6% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.213 to 0.394 | +/- 0.090 |
vs LHP
92 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.115 |
| K% | 11.4% |
| BB% | 2.3% |
| Barrel | 1.2% |
vs RHP
106 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.111 |
| K% | 11.3% |
| BB% | 2.1% |
| Barrel | 0.9% |