Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Perkins, Blake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.286 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.231 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.271 |
| Observed weight | 26% |
xwOBA
0.232
0.251
0.271
0.292
0.310
wOBA
0.168
0.197
0.229
0.261
0.290
ISO
0.058
0.082
0.108
0.135
0.159
K%
20.9%
23.1%
25.5%
28.0%
30.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.7%
37
-22 vs proj
Barrel%2.6%
20
Bat speed64.7
6
Exit velocity82.6
5
Hard-hit%30.8%
16
K%23.1%
42
xBA0.236
3
xSLG0.346
5
xwOBA0.231
4
-25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
20
Arm Runs-0.3 · CF
Limited
Range Runs-1.3 · CF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.4 · LF
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9% · rebadged research
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4% · rebadged research
28
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
66
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
73
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319 · validated
87
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
52
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
52 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.057 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.058 |
| Sample | 78 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 342 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.288 | 0.233 to 0.330 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.101 | 0.059 to 0.194 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 1.1% to 6.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.5% | 28.6% to 46.5% | +/- 8.9% |
| K% | 26.7% | 21.3% to 33.2% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 6.3% to 12.5% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.307 | 0.239 to 0.358 | +/- 0.059 |
vs LHP
299 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.213 |
| K% | 16.7% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |
vs RHP
544 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.202 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |