Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Jones, Jahmai
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team BOS
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
57
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.290 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.263
0.284
0.307
0.331
0.352
wOBA
0.218
0.243
0.270
0.298
0.323
ISO
0.101
0.128
0.158
0.187
0.214
K%
22.1%
24.2%
26.4%
28.7%
30.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
39
-31 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
74
Hard-hit%40.3%
56
xBA0.341
69
xSLG0.575
71
xwOBA0.290
32
-32 vs proj
BB%9.4%
60
Bat speed71.3
74
K%33.3%
6
-34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg-0.2 · LF
31
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.7 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.6 · DH
84
SB Success Rate0.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.3% · rebadged research
48
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions67.9% · rebadged research
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · borderline
90
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
25
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
85
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
63
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
24
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
52 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.049 |
| Sample | 117 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 290 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.319 | 0.249 to 0.372 | +/- 0.062 |
| ISO | 0.173 | 0.102 to 0.272 | +/- 0.085 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 3.4% to 9.3% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.5% | 34.4% to 52.5% | +/- 9.0% |
| K% | 24.2% | 16.4% to 28.2% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 5.7% to 12.6% | +/- 3.5% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.211 to 0.332 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
203 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.187 |
| K% | 11.8% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
143 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.162 |
| K% | 11.6% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |