Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Jones, Jahmai
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team DET
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.328 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.320 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.295
0.320
0.345
0.368
wOBA
0.251
0.281
0.314
0.347
0.377
ISO
0.110
0.139
0.171
0.204
0.233
K%
20.6%
22.8%
25.2%
27.6%
29.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
49
Barrel%5.6%
57
Bat speed70.9
70
Exit velocity90.4
77
Hard-hit%44.4%
69
K%31.1%
10
-27 vs proj
xBA0.379
90
xSLG0.654
86
xwOBA0.328
67
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
Limited
Outs Above Avg-0.2 · RF · small sample regression applied
32
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.7 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.3 · DH
78
SB Success Rate0.0% · DH
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.0% · rebadged research
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9% · rebadged research
64
Correct Decisions67.4% · rebadged research
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline
84
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
25
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
56
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
50 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| Sample | 90 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 290 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.320 | 0.249 to 0.373 | +/- 0.062 |
| ISO | 0.174 | 0.102 to 0.272 | +/- 0.085 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 3.3% to 9.2% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.5% | 34.4% to 52.5% | +/- 9.0% |
| K% | 24.2% | 16.4% to 28.2% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 5.7% to 12.6% | +/- 3.5% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.206 to 0.324 | +/- 0.059 |
vs LHP
203 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.187 |
| K% | 11.8% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
143 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.162 |
| K% | 11.6% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |